Well, we're about a year out from Katrina, covered a bit here before. You already know I follow the hurricane news anyway, so you know I've seen this, the suggestion that (as of this writing) Ernesto will be bearing right down on the gulf coast. It's too soon of course to pick a state, let alone a city as a target, so here is the updating forecast track. There's even a fair bit of uncertainty as to whether the system will stay strong into the gulf, but if it does, the water there is warm and it's a good bet to explosively intensify as Katrina did.
That's the future; let's not forget the past. The Wiki has a good page, of course. NPR will be running stories all week, as will the news channels I'm sure. The Discovery Channel will be running a special on Sunday, and I've heard good things about (but can't see) the Spike Lee documentary on HBO.
Saturday, August 26, 2006
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
Stevis's Library of Shame
I decided to look about the house, and figure out which books I've started and not finished. Cripes, I found eight. This is ridiculous and I will now post the list in the hopes that public shame will get me to finish them.
I don't read like I did as a kid...sure I'm busy. And my life challenges my brain more than the K-12 system ever did, so I don't need as much of the intellectual stimulation a book provides. And I have more and cooler electronics, and those distract me. But I've got to make time, if I wish to continue to call myself a smart person, instead of just a smartass.
So here they are, in the rough order I might attack them. I will, however, listen to your suggestions on the subject.
Cryptonomicon, Neal Stephenson.
I have of course read Snow Crash, and liked it. I started Cryptonomicon right after..and I like it, but I've put 500 pages behind me, and I'm still pretty much in the middle. The bookmark in this is my boarding pass from Christmas.
Collapse, Jared Diamond
Guns, Germs, and Steel is of course now the classic "this is how the world got this way" book for geeks. So this examination of why some societies completely vanish while others thrive was a clear purchase for me...I've only read the intro though.
Baseball Between the Numbers, the Baseball Prospectus folk (Jonah Keri, editor).
This is a bunch of analytical essays on baseball. I've read some of these. Because of the shorter format, I've tried this as a bathroom book, but they're a little too long and a little too full of numbers and charts to be good for that purpose.
The Making of the Atomic Bomb, Richard Rhodes
The definitive history of the Manhattan Project, I had about 100 pages down on this and then that copy was ruined by a curry spill. Probably need to start from the beginning here. Perhaps I should move this up the list--as a physicist, I show know more of the intricacies of this. I will have to follow up with Rhodes's Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb, but that's another giant tome...
Heat Wave, Eric Klineberg
Mostly finished, but I was reading this back in Chicago. It's a sociological examination of the killer Chicago heat wave in the summer of 1995, which I lived through with no AC in the 5th floor of a brick building in Holland, MI. We got a lot of research done that summer because the physics building had good AC. Probably need to skim some of the earlier chapters to be sure I have a gist of the thesis.
Schindler's List, Thomas Keneally
Started once, but would probably go from the beginning. Not an appropriate make-out book.
Bringing Down the House, Ben Mezrich
The story of the MIT blackjack team that engaged in elaborate card-counting operations to make money in Vegas. I've read excerpts, but have not done more than flip through this copy.
The Year the Yankees Lost the Pennant, Douglass Wallop
You may know it better as Damn Yankees. I picked it up at the SABR Bob Davids Chapter annual fundraising raffle. Only read the first chapter so far.
OK...if any of those links don't make sense, let me know--I may have copied something to the wrong place.
I don't read like I did as a kid...sure I'm busy. And my life challenges my brain more than the K-12 system ever did, so I don't need as much of the intellectual stimulation a book provides. And I have more and cooler electronics, and those distract me. But I've got to make time, if I wish to continue to call myself a smart person, instead of just a smartass.
So here they are, in the rough order I might attack them. I will, however, listen to your suggestions on the subject.
Cryptonomicon, Neal Stephenson.
I have of course read Snow Crash, and liked it. I started Cryptonomicon right after..and I like it, but I've put 500 pages behind me, and I'm still pretty much in the middle. The bookmark in this is my boarding pass from Christmas.
Collapse, Jared Diamond
Guns, Germs, and Steel is of course now the classic "this is how the world got this way" book for geeks. So this examination of why some societies completely vanish while others thrive was a clear purchase for me...I've only read the intro though.
Baseball Between the Numbers, the Baseball Prospectus folk (Jonah Keri, editor).
This is a bunch of analytical essays on baseball. I've read some of these. Because of the shorter format, I've tried this as a bathroom book, but they're a little too long and a little too full of numbers and charts to be good for that purpose.
The Making of the Atomic Bomb, Richard Rhodes
The definitive history of the Manhattan Project, I had about 100 pages down on this and then that copy was ruined by a curry spill. Probably need to start from the beginning here. Perhaps I should move this up the list--as a physicist, I show know more of the intricacies of this. I will have to follow up with Rhodes's Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb, but that's another giant tome...
Heat Wave, Eric Klineberg
Mostly finished, but I was reading this back in Chicago. It's a sociological examination of the killer Chicago heat wave in the summer of 1995, which I lived through with no AC in the 5th floor of a brick building in Holland, MI. We got a lot of research done that summer because the physics building had good AC. Probably need to skim some of the earlier chapters to be sure I have a gist of the thesis.
Schindler's List, Thomas Keneally
Started once, but would probably go from the beginning. Not an appropriate make-out book.
Bringing Down the House, Ben Mezrich
The story of the MIT blackjack team that engaged in elaborate card-counting operations to make money in Vegas. I've read excerpts, but have not done more than flip through this copy.
The Year the Yankees Lost the Pennant, Douglass Wallop
You may know it better as Damn Yankees. I picked it up at the SABR Bob Davids Chapter annual fundraising raffle. Only read the first chapter so far.
OK...if any of those links don't make sense, let me know--I may have copied something to the wrong place.
Sunday, July 30, 2006
And I Feel Fine
Sunday, July 23, 2006
Cubs get toasted, but it's still fun
Despite their awful performance last Sunday night, I went to all three Cubs@Nats games...the Nats were having a "Grand Re-Opening" to celebrate both the new owners and some improvements. I had to snicker as they gave me a hat, t-shirt, and "Rally Towel" while I was wearing my Aramis Ramirez jersey...
Speaking of him, he was they only Cub to have a good weekend...Lee didn't start the first two games--supposedly they were resting his wrist--but Aramis had a pair of two-homer games. That's pretty cool when you're wearing the jersey. He didn't homer Sunday as the Cubs took their soundest thrashing of the sweep.
Also of news, they replaced the lame "Presidents Race" animation on the scoreboard with a super-cool "giant-headed Presidents" race on the field, reminiscent of the Sausage Races in Milwaukee. See below. The only thing that would make it cooler than the Sausage Races is if they had Secret Servicemen running alongside. Giant-headed costumes, or just guys & gals in black suits, I don't care. But they need Secret Servicemen to go over the top with this.
The pics:
Austin Kearns
Nick Johnson
Alfonso Soriano
Ryan Zimmerman
The view from this year's 20-game plan seat (Saturday)
The umps, from Sunday's seat
Aramis. All for one!
Derrek Lee, fouling off a ball
Neifi the Outmaker, Black Hole of Suckitude
The next five are the Giant Headed Presidents (band name!):
Speaking of him, he was they only Cub to have a good weekend...Lee didn't start the first two games--supposedly they were resting his wrist--but Aramis had a pair of two-homer games. That's pretty cool when you're wearing the jersey. He didn't homer Sunday as the Cubs took their soundest thrashing of the sweep.
Also of news, they replaced the lame "Presidents Race" animation on the scoreboard with a super-cool "giant-headed Presidents" race on the field, reminiscent of the Sausage Races in Milwaukee. See below. The only thing that would make it cooler than the Sausage Races is if they had Secret Servicemen running alongside. Giant-headed costumes, or just guys & gals in black suits, I don't care. But they need Secret Servicemen to go over the top with this.
The pics:
Austin Kearns
Nick Johnson
Alfonso Soriano
Ryan Zimmerman
The view from this year's 20-game plan seat (Saturday)
The umps, from Sunday's seat
Aramis. All for one!
Derrek Lee, fouling off a ball
Neifi the Outmaker, Black Hole of SuckitudeThe next five are the Giant Headed Presidents (band name!):
Sunday, July 09, 2006
Science Link Post
From the world of combustion chemistry, I bring you grilling with liquid oxygen. Do not try this at home. At least without me. Not that it would be safer, but I want to see it. (Some of you have probably seen it before; I couldn't find it on the net for quite a while.)
From the social sciences: computer simulations of societies, with very simple rules for the individual units, have surprising and disturbing results.
From the lines of the science-religion discourse, a physicist addresses how to talk to the general public about the "conflict." Probably of more interest to the scientists among the handful of readers; as a suggestion on how to approach the topic.
From the social sciences: computer simulations of societies, with very simple rules for the individual units, have surprising and disturbing results.
From the lines of the science-religion discourse, a physicist addresses how to talk to the general public about the "conflict." Probably of more interest to the scientists among the handful of readers; as a suggestion on how to approach the topic.
Tuesday, July 04, 2006
I am a Patriot
I will not wrap myself in the flag; I will declare this to be the greatest country that ever was. I will not allow that to blind me to calls to make it better. Rectifying an injustice is not unpatriotic; nay, it is the height of patriotism. It's certainly how we got started.
You could argue that the current administration, and their enablers assembled in Congress (on both sides of the aisle), even hit these listed "Injuries and Usurpations," albeit only passively on the final:
Fortunately, we are not forced yet to pledge our Lives, our Fortunes and our Sacred Honor. (Yes, I spelled it as we do today. Sue me.) It's a critical campaign season coming up; do what you can, give what you can. OK, so maybe that is pledging your Fortune. As cynical as many of us have become, including me, it's not going to get better unless we work at it.
They say that the top athletes are those who are never satisfied, and constantly work to make themselves just a little better. That's how I feel about patriotism. Just because we have a lot of which to be proud, doesn't mean it's wrong to focus on being even better.
You could argue that the current administration, and their enablers assembled in Congress (on both sides of the aisle), even hit these listed "Injuries and Usurpations," albeit only passively on the final:
HE has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil Power.
HE has combined with others to subject us to a Jurisdiction foreign to our Constitution, and unacknowledged by our Laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
FOR depriving us, in many Cases, of the Benefits of Trial by Jury:
HE has plundered our Seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our Towns, and destroyed the Lives of our People.
Fortunately, we are not forced yet to pledge our Lives, our Fortunes and our Sacred Honor. (Yes, I spelled it as we do today. Sue me.) It's a critical campaign season coming up; do what you can, give what you can. OK, so maybe that is pledging your Fortune. As cynical as many of us have become, including me, it's not going to get better unless we work at it.
They say that the top athletes are those who are never satisfied, and constantly work to make themselves just a little better. That's how I feel about patriotism. Just because we have a lot of which to be proud, doesn't mean it's wrong to focus on being even better.
Sunday, July 02, 2006
Rain Wrap-up
Washington evaluates its repsonse; I can't really say it was too bad, although as they point out in the article there are obvious traffic flow issues to work on. Of course, they're going to treat the mass of people trying to leave the Mall area after the Independence Day fireworks as an evacuation drill. Mostly in terms of reconfiguring the roads to be outbound-heavy, I would hope. Fake emergency announcements would be bad.
The opening 9/10 tourney game at CSLL on Thursday was rained out...by a brief thundershower. At that, you would have needed water wings to go from 2nd to 3rd. The fields were mostly alright on Friday night, but one of the bullpens (in foul ground) was a soggy mess. Fortunately no ball in play ever found that area.
In unrelated news, DC is experimenting with rubber sidewalks. If you could only chalk them up, that would be a hell of a hopscotch court.
The opening 9/10 tourney game at CSLL on Thursday was rained out...by a brief thundershower. At that, you would have needed water wings to go from 2nd to 3rd. The fields were mostly alright on Friday night, but one of the bullpens (in foul ground) was a soggy mess. Fortunately no ball in play ever found that area.
In unrelated news, DC is experimenting with rubber sidewalks. If you could only chalk them up, that would be a hell of a hopscotch court.
Friday, June 30, 2006
The Competitive Eating Diet
How to eat like this crazy chick from Alexandria, or, how you too can lose weight on the competitive eating circuit.
I'm doubtful that any of us in high school could have drank 126 ounces of liquid in one sitting. I mean, that's two of the giant Wesco* mugs, and I never even got one of those.
*For you non Michiganders, that's just a local gas station chain.
I'm doubtful that any of us in high school could have drank 126 ounces of liquid in one sitting. I mean, that's two of the giant Wesco* mugs, and I never even got one of those.
*For you non Michiganders, that's just a local gas station chain.
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
How High's The Water, Mama?
Five feet high and risin'.
Pull out a $20 bill; look at the back. That tree on the right of the White House isn't there anymore. All of the wet-dry vacuums are already gone. Here's a summary for the graphically inclined. The Capital Weather blog will probably have the most up-to-the-minute info, if you care.
Another 2-4 in. overnight (Tuesday) We're going to get brushed, although not too badly, with that tropical system that didn't organize off of North Carolina.
I have ice cream, scotch, and a "Rain" playlist on iTunes. I'm good to go.
Pull out a $20 bill; look at the back. That tree on the right of the White House isn't there anymore. All of the wet-dry vacuums are already gone. Here's a summary for the graphically inclined. The Capital Weather blog will probably have the most up-to-the-minute info, if you care.
Another 2-4 in. overnight (Tuesday) We're going to get brushed, although not too badly, with that tropical system that didn't organize off of North Carolina.
I have ice cream, scotch, and a "Rain" playlist on iTunes. I'm good to go.
Monday, June 26, 2006
Just Another Manic Monday
I've bitched before that no one here can drive if a single molecule of water falls from the sky in any way, shape, or form. But this time it's legitimate; we've suffered a deluge. (WaPost; registration/bugmenot). Roads have been closed, people endangered on the roads. On the traffic website I check, I've seen reports that my road to the Beltway is flooded; the Beltway is closed at alternate route on; and when that opened that their was a mudslide onto the Beltway in between me and work. The mudslide is I'm sure from the construction--last Monday, when trying to escape a downpour that washed out our softball game in Maryland, it was clear all the runoff from the Wilson bridge & related construction project was focused on to the Beltway--stupid whether or not it was on purpose. See, where I grew up, the roads drain to the side.
The feds are actually on unscheduled leave, wherein you can burn a vacation day unplanned--I've only seen that happen for snow, so far. And I was even going to get moving early today--since I woke up an hour before my alarm because my blood sugar was low, I figured I'd get moving...but it doesn't seem like a good idea to gas up the car and go right now. Since the sound on ESPN isn't coming through my cable right now, so I can't even catch the highlights I missed....this is a rough day, and I'm not even dressed yet.
The feds are actually on unscheduled leave, wherein you can burn a vacation day unplanned--I've only seen that happen for snow, so far. And I was even going to get moving early today--since I woke up an hour before my alarm because my blood sugar was low, I figured I'd get moving...but it doesn't seem like a good idea to gas up the car and go right now. Since the sound on ESPN isn't coming through my cable right now, so I can't even catch the highlights I missed....this is a rough day, and I'm not even dressed yet.
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
I singled to right. No, seriously.
Those of you who played softball with me in Chicago will struggle to believe me, but I singled to right today. Right over a leaping firstbaseman, driving in two runs.
Famously--or maybe the opposite of that, wherein no one gives a crap--I went through a stretch in slow-pitch softball in grad school of being unable to hit a fair ball, on account of always swinging way to early. My solution was not to learn patience, but to start with my bat in front of the plate, and yank it back to the elbows-out position only after the ball was released. This cockamamie system worked, but I could still only rip balls down the line, in the hole, or just to the left of second base. Even if I was trying to aim to right. I defined dead-pull hitter.
Well, in this modified fast pitch league I'm playing in, I don't have that luxury. There's no windup, so the delivery is sort of like a bowling motion--it's not that fast, but too fast for my loopy swing. Mostly I'm looking for a pitch inner-half to pull inside the 3rd base bag. Except for with two strikes on me, when I'm actually choking up and slapping at the ball a bit. It's worked pretty well.
The exact pitch sequence, for posterity:
1. Taken, strike on the inside corner. Not a good pitch to swing at for the first strike.
2. Taken, ball high.
3. Taken, strike about 4 inches outside. Ok, if that's the way we're going to be...
4. Taken, ball low. Almost got me to swing.
5. Pitch about 2 inches outside. Sorta had to swing there. Stepped into it and drove it to the right side.
Surprisingly, I did not hear trumpets or see horsemen.
Famously--or maybe the opposite of that, wherein no one gives a crap--I went through a stretch in slow-pitch softball in grad school of being unable to hit a fair ball, on account of always swinging way to early. My solution was not to learn patience, but to start with my bat in front of the plate, and yank it back to the elbows-out position only after the ball was released. This cockamamie system worked, but I could still only rip balls down the line, in the hole, or just to the left of second base. Even if I was trying to aim to right. I defined dead-pull hitter.
Well, in this modified fast pitch league I'm playing in, I don't have that luxury. There's no windup, so the delivery is sort of like a bowling motion--it's not that fast, but too fast for my loopy swing. Mostly I'm looking for a pitch inner-half to pull inside the 3rd base bag. Except for with two strikes on me, when I'm actually choking up and slapping at the ball a bit. It's worked pretty well.
The exact pitch sequence, for posterity:
1. Taken, strike on the inside corner. Not a good pitch to swing at for the first strike.
2. Taken, ball high.
3. Taken, strike about 4 inches outside. Ok, if that's the way we're going to be...
4. Taken, ball low. Almost got me to swing.
5. Pitch about 2 inches outside. Sorta had to swing there. Stepped into it and drove it to the right side.
Surprisingly, I did not hear trumpets or see horsemen.
Thursday, June 15, 2006
This must be a Thursday..
I never could get the hang of Thursdays. Or blog posting, apparently...
While my side project (and way to stay here next year) is going swimmingly, the main imager project isn't. It's frustrating, and I need to bear down harder, but things will not get done on the schedule we've hoped for all 2006. Some of it is us not figuring crap out, a lot of it is things breaking out from under us...but oh well.
League umpiring is done...I'll be doing districts again the first two weeks of July. May just have to see about driving up to Williamsport this year, or next...it'll be tough this year because, with the project, there's no way to take a weekday off right now. Ah well.
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Weird baseball stories
Thankfully, no one in the league I ump for is quite this stupid.
Someone(s) got busy in a Minute Maid bathroom.
Someone(s) got busy in a Minute Maid bathroom.
Monday, May 15, 2006
Start lifting weights so you can shave
I've been saying for years that the adding of blades to razors is getting out of control. Now, the Economist even shows that the time evolution of blade number follows a hyperbolic funtion. Thus inside of ten years we will have a fourteen-blade razor.
Thursday, May 11, 2006
Diabetic Babelfish
I know I've shared this link before, but never blogged it, so some of you haven't seen it. It's a list of translations for "I have diabetes." The Arabic structure is funny (literally, "I have the sugar disease") but the Scots Gaelic is the best--literally, "The diabetes is on me." Get it off! GET IT OFF!!!!!!!!!!
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
New Gear is Great
Well, I got to break in the new umpire gear tonight. Could be my imagination, but it certainly felt lighter that the league gear I'd been borrowing. Especially the mask, which I've got adjusted so I can actually get it off consistently without sending my hat flying. Handy.
And lo, did I need it tonight. Took one bounced pitch off of the arm, two bounced pitches off of the cup, and a foul ball off the clavicle guard. The league chest protectors don't all have arm guards, let alone the extra clavicle piece like mine has.
It was a good well played game, with no crap from the coaches. I think I'm going to be happy with this investment.
And lo, did I need it tonight. Took one bounced pitch off of the arm, two bounced pitches off of the cup, and a foul ball off the clavicle guard. The league chest protectors don't all have arm guards, let alone the extra clavicle piece like mine has.
It was a good well played game, with no crap from the coaches. I think I'm going to be happy with this investment.
Sunday, May 07, 2006
177 Outs in 28 Hours
Two five-inning umping games, followed by two Nationals games...that was a lot of baseball this weekend. Some of it was even played well, although there were a couple of little league plays at the big league level...the anthem today was sung by some pre-teen female trio that dubbed themselves "Clique." They were good, but, um...do you want to be self-portrayed as elitist jerks?
I have finally ordered my own plate gear, so I guess I'm in this for the long haul. You don't drop $300+ and stop doing it...unless you're 12 and it's guitar or ballet or mountain biking or something.
I've got to work on backing up, and getting away-from-the-ball obstruction in my field of view though. I've seen too much borderline stuff on the periphery of my vision, I'd better start nailing people on it. I'm happy with my strike zone these days--still needs a little work on consistency, but it's better.
And if I find the people who are spamming the comments, I will beat them with new shin guards.
I have finally ordered my own plate gear, so I guess I'm in this for the long haul. You don't drop $300+ and stop doing it...unless you're 12 and it's guitar or ballet or mountain biking or something.
I've got to work on backing up, and getting away-from-the-ball obstruction in my field of view though. I've seen too much borderline stuff on the periphery of my vision, I'd better start nailing people on it. I'm happy with my strike zone these days--still needs a little work on consistency, but it's better.
And if I find the people who are spamming the comments, I will beat them with new shin guards.
Saturday, May 06, 2006
This Is Where Liking Cricket Gets You
For upwards of twenty years, it would seem that a troubled Florida man has been passing himself off as English nobility. In England, nonetheless, so that shows you how on the ball they are. He stole the name of a long-dead infant, and even a legitimate coat of arms that had fallen into disuse. And he's still refusing to admit who he really is, although authorities have an idea now.
Friday, April 28, 2006
Dogs and Cats, Lying Down Together. Madness.
I found myself agreeing with both Charles Krauthammer and Pat Buchanan today. Yikes.
Although I would argue with Krauthammer (and doesn't that sound like a WWII era superhero comic?) that gas companies are taking advantage of the fact that gas truly isn't a basic supply & demand commodity--slashing prices at the pump will only cause all of the other companies to do so as well, with the effect that they all make less money. But prices are not being arbitrarily raised; it's summer driving season and we've tossed so much uncertainty into the supply chain.
On the nukes, see also this flash animation as to why the nuclear bunker busters won't and can't work. Alright, the "can't" is a little shy on details for the scientists among you, but it does convey the sheer volume of unintended consequences from this proposal.
Although I would argue with Krauthammer (and doesn't that sound like a WWII era superhero comic?) that gas companies are taking advantage of the fact that gas truly isn't a basic supply & demand commodity--slashing prices at the pump will only cause all of the other companies to do so as well, with the effect that they all make less money. But prices are not being arbitrarily raised; it's summer driving season and we've tossed so much uncertainty into the supply chain.
On the nukes, see also this flash animation as to why the nuclear bunker busters won't and can't work. Alright, the "can't" is a little shy on details for the scientists among you, but it does convey the sheer volume of unintended consequences from this proposal.
Monday, April 24, 2006
Softball
So I'm playing softball again...on an NRL team that is playing "modified fastpitch," which is fast pitch rules, only no windmill windups. So you have to throw it flat, with only the slowpitch step forward. More or less what the UC Sciences league ended up like half of the time anyway.
I liked my timing after a year off, but I aggravated my thumb strain and it's only now feeling normal. I've only been taking ibuprofen sporadically, though. I hope this doesn't become a regular occurrence...constantly taking ibuprofen all year just to play is really not a tenable situation.
And just to show you how ridiculous the GOP has become, they've staged a withdrawal from the Congressional softball league over how a Democratic staffer is running the league. If you look at the details of how they get their fields, you'll see they're just as spoiled and priviledged as you might guess.
I liked my timing after a year off, but I aggravated my thumb strain and it's only now feeling normal. I've only been taking ibuprofen sporadically, though. I hope this doesn't become a regular occurrence...constantly taking ibuprofen all year just to play is really not a tenable situation.
And just to show you how ridiculous the GOP has become, they've staged a withdrawal from the Congressional softball league over how a Democratic staffer is running the league. If you look at the details of how they get their fields, you'll see they're just as spoiled and priviledged as you might guess.
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
So, What's Everyone Been Up To?
I've been up to starting some softball, returning to umpiring, and working on the job search. And, you know, research too. I suppose. When someone's looking.
Shane's been up to handing out his NHL awards, and I can't say I disagree with a choice. I'd mention Lundqvist in the Calder race as well. They really ought to have more finallists brought to Toronto for that, given that they effectively had two rookie classes this year.
I've been up to ignoring Amazing Race postings, since no one was commenting. I think the awful Family Edition sucked the interest out of me. The back to normal show has been good, but it's not sucking me in like it was.
Going rafting again at the end of May, so I'll be sure to blog about that.
OK, I'll try to get back to schedule...one thing I thought of is to institute the feature Stevis's Second Favorite Thing in the Universe, in which I talk about whatever I'm geeking about that moment. We'll see. I also started this blog with the intention of writing essays inspired by hats in my collection, and never have, so don't get your hopes up.
Shane's been up to handing out his NHL awards, and I can't say I disagree with a choice. I'd mention Lundqvist in the Calder race as well. They really ought to have more finallists brought to Toronto for that, given that they effectively had two rookie classes this year.
I've been up to ignoring Amazing Race postings, since no one was commenting. I think the awful Family Edition sucked the interest out of me. The back to normal show has been good, but it's not sucking me in like it was.
Going rafting again at the end of May, so I'll be sure to blog about that.
OK, I'll try to get back to schedule...one thing I thought of is to institute the feature Stevis's Second Favorite Thing in the Universe, in which I talk about whatever I'm geeking about that moment. We'll see. I also started this blog with the intention of writing essays inspired by hats in my collection, and never have, so don't get your hopes up.
Friday, March 10, 2006
Legal precedent that closed source software is untrustworthy
Closed source applications screw up you're voting; now you're seeing them screw up DUI convictions. Of course, in this case it's because judges are agreeing with defense attorneys that the rights of the accused to examine the case against them are being neglected. Maybe this sets a hopeful precedent to challenge Diebold.
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
The Amazing Race 9--"I'm Filthy and I Love It!"
Ah...real racing...so good. They even avoided the stupid premiere episode campout last week.
Thursday, March 02, 2006
World Baseball Classic
Alright, I admit it--I've got nothing to keep my posting pledge with. But I can remind you that the World Baseball Classic has started--you can listen on the Internets at mlb.com for $10 (for the whole thing.) The Asian bracket is starting earlier so they can get over here and aclimate for the second round. I'd like this tourney better if it were in November, and not so neutered with the pitch counts and what not. But it's still baseball after a cold winter.
Monday, February 27, 2006
The Amazing Race 9--"Here We Go, Baby, Off to Win a Million Bucks! "
Listen to me clearly: Around the World. Around the World.
Hopefully the return to real racing will include an actual circumnavigation, better tasks, and less "baby." Oops.
Hopefully the return to real racing will include an actual circumnavigation, better tasks, and less "baby." Oops.
Thursday, February 23, 2006
Places not to have Pit Stops
With a real Amazing Race premiering in less than a week, I bring you a link to places they probably won't be visiting.
I would invite you to contemplate, as I did, who in their right mind would have even thought about going to any of those places on holiday anyway. Except Papau New Guinea--I hadn't heard the situation there before this article.
I would invite you to contemplate, as I did, who in their right mind would have even thought about going to any of those places on holiday anyway. Except Papau New Guinea--I hadn't heard the situation there before this article.
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Olympic Hockey Medal Round
The pairing are set and only bear the slightest resemblance to my preview. I got seven of eight medal round teams right, but a reasonably intelligent chimpanzee could have done that.
Anyway, here is the bracket:
Winner of Finland vs. U.S.A. plays winner of Russia vs. Canada in one semifinal
Winner of Slovakia vs. Czeck Republic plays winner of Switzerland vs. Sweden
Brief Preview and picks:
Sw game
The Swiss scored two surprising upsets over the Czechs and Candians; then proceded to tie two lesser teams. It didn't cost them 2nd place in the group, but still--they were outscored in the preliminary round, and that speaks to a team that isn't as good as its wins look. The Swedes are a better team, and don't want to have a third straight Olympic quarterfinal ouster...I think they'll take it 3-2.
Czechoslovakia game
The formerly united countries face off...the Czech team underperforming and hurt; Slovakia is undefeated and on a roll. I do think the Slovak defense will come back to haunt them, but I think the roll will continue here; Slovaks 4-2.
Summit Series '72 Game
Canada and Russia, minus the whole animosity thing. Did Canada get back on track in defeating the Czechs? The Russians are playing well, only losing to Slovakia while showing the best offensive output of pool play. Canada will probably try to keep this game low scoring and physical--but the Russians are clicking, and Canada will have to find its scoring touch in a hurry. Toughest game for me to call; I'll take Russia in a 5-4 final. This is the most likely game to need a shootout, and if it goes to one I have no idea what will happen.
Game with no catchy reference
Finland allowed two goals in five games. The U.S. has been struggling to score. Gee, what do we think will happen here? The U.S. has improved every game--their effort is closer to where it needs to be, but they still are having difficulty finding the back of the net. Or sometimes, given all the times I've heard "shot wide," finding the net at all. They're also making too many mistakes in giveaways and not covering odd man chances. I don't think they'll find the offense against the currently dominating Finns. Three of the U.S. goals today were against the Russian backup. I say Finland 4, U.S. 1.
Beyond that, I'll run with Finland over Russia; Sweden over the Slovaks; with Finland gold, Sweden silver, and Russia bronze. Note how quickly I abandon my Canada/Sweden/Czech Republic prediction, which is still possible.
Anyway, here is the bracket:
Winner of Finland vs. U.S.A. plays winner of Russia vs. Canada in one semifinal
Winner of Slovakia vs. Czeck Republic plays winner of Switzerland vs. Sweden
Brief Preview and picks:
Sw game
The Swiss scored two surprising upsets over the Czechs and Candians; then proceded to tie two lesser teams. It didn't cost them 2nd place in the group, but still--they were outscored in the preliminary round, and that speaks to a team that isn't as good as its wins look. The Swedes are a better team, and don't want to have a third straight Olympic quarterfinal ouster...I think they'll take it 3-2.
Czechoslovakia game
The formerly united countries face off...the Czech team underperforming and hurt; Slovakia is undefeated and on a roll. I do think the Slovak defense will come back to haunt them, but I think the roll will continue here; Slovaks 4-2.
Summit Series '72 Game
Canada and Russia, minus the whole animosity thing. Did Canada get back on track in defeating the Czechs? The Russians are playing well, only losing to Slovakia while showing the best offensive output of pool play. Canada will probably try to keep this game low scoring and physical--but the Russians are clicking, and Canada will have to find its scoring touch in a hurry. Toughest game for me to call; I'll take Russia in a 5-4 final. This is the most likely game to need a shootout, and if it goes to one I have no idea what will happen.
Game with no catchy reference
Finland allowed two goals in five games. The U.S. has been struggling to score. Gee, what do we think will happen here? The U.S. has improved every game--their effort is closer to where it needs to be, but they still are having difficulty finding the back of the net. Or sometimes, given all the times I've heard "shot wide," finding the net at all. They're also making too many mistakes in giveaways and not covering odd man chances. I don't think they'll find the offense against the currently dominating Finns. Three of the U.S. goals today were against the Russian backup. I say Finland 4, U.S. 1.
Beyond that, I'll run with Finland over Russia; Sweden over the Slovaks; with Finland gold, Sweden silver, and Russia bronze. Note how quickly I abandon my Canada/Sweden/Czech Republic prediction, which is still possible.
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Renewing the Call
Time for me to renew my call to modify the federal holidays. Yes, Washington was very important to this country and we should be cognizant of our history. But we just had a Monday off in January (MLK) after the holiday season; we don't need another day off of work now, in a cold, crappy month, with no holidays coming until the end of May.
When we need it is the first Monday of April. Opening Day. National Pastime, National Holiday--it's got to happen. Tons of people skip work to go to the games anyway, and tons more like me are just this side of useless that day. How does this not make sense? Who's with me?
When we need it is the first Monday of April. Opening Day. National Pastime, National Holiday--it's got to happen. Tons of people skip work to go to the games anyway, and tons more like me are just this side of useless that day. How does this not make sense? Who's with me?
Sunday, February 12, 2006
Olympic Hockey Preview, Part Three--Group B and Medal Round
Same source cites as Group A preview; I'll make quickie bracket positions based on my predicted order of group finish, which of course will be wrong in several key ways.
Kazakhstan
They have F Nik Antropov of the Maple Leafs and G Vitaliy Kolesnik, who's seen some time with the Avalanche this year. This figures to be a better learning exercise for Colorado than it does anything else. The team upset Germany at the 2005 World Championships, and played some other teams close, so they could surprise with a win over Latvia, a lazy US team, or Slovakia if their goaltending is worse than advertised--but they'll be hard pressed to pull off enough to get to the medal round once and if they catch someone's attention.
Latvia
Latvia is here on the decaying remnants of the Soviet program--they don't have the depth of talent when it doesn't get to train with the best of a huge nation, and they could fall off of the international stage after this. Arturs Irbe should tend net--he led Carolina to the 2002 Stanley Cup Finals. They could steal a win or two--they have some other NHL-caliber players such as "defenseman" Sandis Ozolinsh. (The next day he plays D will be the first.) It will take a collapse by someone else for them to make the medal round, but they do have the ability to take advantage of such a collapse.
Slovakia
The previews I read seem to be very high on Slovakia. As I mentioned before, they're finally getting a fair chance to compete. And they have a power to turn to. Could it be....Satan??
Alright, tired Miorslav Satan joke done. They have a lot of star power up front-Satan, Pavel Demitra, Marian Gaborik, Petr Bondra, and a pair of Hossa brothers. However it's not a very defensive bunch, and while they do have a couple of star defenders (Zdeno Chara and Lubomir Visnovky), the Slovaks are thinner there than any other serious medal contender. You'll notice I haven't mentioned netminders yet--that's their biggest uncertainty. Neither of their goalies are NHL guys, and if it seems like I'm using that as a crutch for analysis, I can only point out that it is the best hockey in the world. When they're open for business. Between that and their thin defensive talent, I don't see them doing as well as some people think. If they are to do well, one of the goalies will have to step up. They will also have conserve the minutes of their top-four defensemen--by staying out of the penalty box, and by putting away teams early (especially the two weak sisters above).
United States
The US team is in transition. The stalwarts of international competition have gotten old and/or retired, and the team has had to get younger--yet, they're still old on defense, led by 44-year-old captain Chris Chelios. He's been a model of solid play and conserving his effort this year for the Red Wings, but can he keep up the effort for 5 games in 8 days on the bigger ice surface? The same is true for much of the rest of the defense, to lesser degrees. Of random note, injury replacement D Bret Hedican will be shooting for the second gold in his family--the other owned by his wife Kristi Yamaguchi.
Their forward core is young-led by Scott Gomez, Eric Cole, and Mark Parrish--but I think it has the scoring potential. They're not speedy but they are quick enough to pay a pressure game and keep the puck in the offensive zone. They could really use the few veterans to step up with some clutch goals--I'm looking at you, Keith Tkachuk.
The US, like Slovakia, is unsettled in net. They've brought Rick DiPietro (NYI), John Grahame (TB), and Robert Esche (PHI). Unfortunately the best US goalie this NHL season has been Ryan Miller (BUF), who was hurt at selection time, so they passed over him. DiPietro should start as he has the capacity to be great--but he hasn't been great much of this season. Grahame and Esche have similarly not played to potential, but instead of great-> OK they've been more decent->blah->downright crappy. Someone has to step up for the US to medal, and DiPietro's the best bet.
Overall this looks like more of a transition year to a team with a strong chance in Vancouver in 2010. The US will have to bust its collective butt if they want to medal. Coach Peter Laviolette might want to play a soundbite from Miracle--"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." They have to win the majority of loose pucks and pounce on the majority of rebounds in both ends. They have to come away from the special teams (i.e. man-advantage) situations with a substantial plus in goals. Any medal would be a good result--but it's not out of the question that if they play up to 90% of their potential they can take the gold. One break they get is starting with Kazakhstan and Latvia, so they potentially get two games to ramp up to top speed. Or they could lose one of them and blow their chances.
Russia
I had difficulty rating these last three teams, and I strongly considered putting the US ahead of Russia. The Russians are talented but dysfunctional. Pavel Bure was appointed GM, and this led a lot of the better Russian players (Fedorov and Zubov among them) to pass on the competition. The fact that the Russian federation is still largely controlled with an old-guard mentality has not done anything for team loyalty, chemistry, or sense of nationalism, and Russian teams since 1998 have been characterized my infighting and lack of cohesion.
That being said, they've medaled in both of the professional Olympics, and still have some of the best talent in the world. They've added some young players and could conceivably ice a line of Alexander Ovechkin (presumptive NHL Rookie of the Year), Pavel Datsyuk (he of the Jedi puck control skills), and Ilya Kovalchuk (no defense sniper extraordinaire.) That line might even make Jack Bauer wet himself. The rest of the forwards (including Alexei Yashin, Alexander Kovalev) should add goals and creative playmaking but little grit. The grit will be made up on defense, where Darius Kasparitis never met a check he didn't like. Sergei Gonchar is also on the blue line, and can add great puck movement if he pulls his head out of his butt, where he's had it all year for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Evgeni Nabokov looks to get the start in goal with Khabibulin hurting, as soon as he finishes his draft of Lolita. He's seemed to struggle a bit this year, but I think that's as much the change in the new rules changing expectations for goalies as anything. That, and San Jose isn't great in front of him. I think he'll be decent and lead the Russians to second in the group, but that USA-Russia matchup on the last day of pool play could be pivotal and a helluva game.
Sweden
Salt Lake City. 2002. An innocent floater fro Vladimir Kopat of Belarus hits Tommy Salo's mask and bounces across the goal line. And since that day, Sweden have been gacking in international competitions.
I think it stops here. They haven't had a netminder step up, and now they have Henrik Lundqvist, wowing the NHL for the New York Rangers after rocking the Swedish Elite League during the lockout. They've got playmaking up and down the lineup, and while losing Markus Naslund hurts, they've replaced him with Tomas Holmstrom. Holmstrom will be the worst skater of any of the top 8 contenders, but he will be digging for rebounds and screening the opposition goaltender like mad, and that adds something Sweden didn't have that they might need to turn to. They have veterans with international experience (Sundin, Forsberg if he's healthy) and exciting youth (e.g., Zetterberg, the Sedin twins). Their defense is top notch on both ends of the ice, led by steady Nick Lidstrom, still playing 30 minutes a night at age 35 in the NHL. He won't need to here, but he'll be on the ice at all crucial times. Russia will get the attention as the "creative" team but I think Sweden's even better at it.
Of course, one loss and, like Canada, they'll have a nation on their backs, right next to the monkey. If Forsberg is out they'll lose their most dominant forward, but I think they have the depth to handle it. I think they'll be eager to put forth a good showing and come out on top of this group.
So that leaves me with these matchups (& wild-ass guesses) for the medal round:
Sweden vs. Germany--Sweden
Czech Republic vs. USA--Czechs
Russia vs. Finland--Russia
Canada vs. Slovakia--Canada
Sweden over Czechs & Canada over Russia in the semis.
Bronze medal: Czechs over Russia:
Silver: Sweden
Gold: Canada
Kazakhstan
They have F Nik Antropov of the Maple Leafs and G Vitaliy Kolesnik, who's seen some time with the Avalanche this year. This figures to be a better learning exercise for Colorado than it does anything else. The team upset Germany at the 2005 World Championships, and played some other teams close, so they could surprise with a win over Latvia, a lazy US team, or Slovakia if their goaltending is worse than advertised--but they'll be hard pressed to pull off enough to get to the medal round once and if they catch someone's attention.
Latvia
Latvia is here on the decaying remnants of the Soviet program--they don't have the depth of talent when it doesn't get to train with the best of a huge nation, and they could fall off of the international stage after this. Arturs Irbe should tend net--he led Carolina to the 2002 Stanley Cup Finals. They could steal a win or two--they have some other NHL-caliber players such as "defenseman" Sandis Ozolinsh. (The next day he plays D will be the first.) It will take a collapse by someone else for them to make the medal round, but they do have the ability to take advantage of such a collapse.
Slovakia
The previews I read seem to be very high on Slovakia. As I mentioned before, they're finally getting a fair chance to compete. And they have a power to turn to. Could it be....Satan??
Alright, tired Miorslav Satan joke done. They have a lot of star power up front-Satan, Pavel Demitra, Marian Gaborik, Petr Bondra, and a pair of Hossa brothers. However it's not a very defensive bunch, and while they do have a couple of star defenders (Zdeno Chara and Lubomir Visnovky), the Slovaks are thinner there than any other serious medal contender. You'll notice I haven't mentioned netminders yet--that's their biggest uncertainty. Neither of their goalies are NHL guys, and if it seems like I'm using that as a crutch for analysis, I can only point out that it is the best hockey in the world. When they're open for business. Between that and their thin defensive talent, I don't see them doing as well as some people think. If they are to do well, one of the goalies will have to step up. They will also have conserve the minutes of their top-four defensemen--by staying out of the penalty box, and by putting away teams early (especially the two weak sisters above).
United States
The US team is in transition. The stalwarts of international competition have gotten old and/or retired, and the team has had to get younger--yet, they're still old on defense, led by 44-year-old captain Chris Chelios. He's been a model of solid play and conserving his effort this year for the Red Wings, but can he keep up the effort for 5 games in 8 days on the bigger ice surface? The same is true for much of the rest of the defense, to lesser degrees. Of random note, injury replacement D Bret Hedican will be shooting for the second gold in his family--the other owned by his wife Kristi Yamaguchi.
Their forward core is young-led by Scott Gomez, Eric Cole, and Mark Parrish--but I think it has the scoring potential. They're not speedy but they are quick enough to pay a pressure game and keep the puck in the offensive zone. They could really use the few veterans to step up with some clutch goals--I'm looking at you, Keith Tkachuk.
The US, like Slovakia, is unsettled in net. They've brought Rick DiPietro (NYI), John Grahame (TB), and Robert Esche (PHI). Unfortunately the best US goalie this NHL season has been Ryan Miller (BUF), who was hurt at selection time, so they passed over him. DiPietro should start as he has the capacity to be great--but he hasn't been great much of this season. Grahame and Esche have similarly not played to potential, but instead of great-> OK they've been more decent->blah->downright crappy. Someone has to step up for the US to medal, and DiPietro's the best bet.
Overall this looks like more of a transition year to a team with a strong chance in Vancouver in 2010. The US will have to bust its collective butt if they want to medal. Coach Peter Laviolette might want to play a soundbite from Miracle--"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." They have to win the majority of loose pucks and pounce on the majority of rebounds in both ends. They have to come away from the special teams (i.e. man-advantage) situations with a substantial plus in goals. Any medal would be a good result--but it's not out of the question that if they play up to 90% of their potential they can take the gold. One break they get is starting with Kazakhstan and Latvia, so they potentially get two games to ramp up to top speed. Or they could lose one of them and blow their chances.
Russia
I had difficulty rating these last three teams, and I strongly considered putting the US ahead of Russia. The Russians are talented but dysfunctional. Pavel Bure was appointed GM, and this led a lot of the better Russian players (Fedorov and Zubov among them) to pass on the competition. The fact that the Russian federation is still largely controlled with an old-guard mentality has not done anything for team loyalty, chemistry, or sense of nationalism, and Russian teams since 1998 have been characterized my infighting and lack of cohesion.
That being said, they've medaled in both of the professional Olympics, and still have some of the best talent in the world. They've added some young players and could conceivably ice a line of Alexander Ovechkin (presumptive NHL Rookie of the Year), Pavel Datsyuk (he of the Jedi puck control skills), and Ilya Kovalchuk (no defense sniper extraordinaire.) That line might even make Jack Bauer wet himself. The rest of the forwards (including Alexei Yashin, Alexander Kovalev) should add goals and creative playmaking but little grit. The grit will be made up on defense, where Darius Kasparitis never met a check he didn't like. Sergei Gonchar is also on the blue line, and can add great puck movement if he pulls his head out of his butt, where he's had it all year for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Evgeni Nabokov looks to get the start in goal with Khabibulin hurting, as soon as he finishes his draft of Lolita. He's seemed to struggle a bit this year, but I think that's as much the change in the new rules changing expectations for goalies as anything. That, and San Jose isn't great in front of him. I think he'll be decent and lead the Russians to second in the group, but that USA-Russia matchup on the last day of pool play could be pivotal and a helluva game.
Sweden
Salt Lake City. 2002. An innocent floater fro Vladimir Kopat of Belarus hits Tommy Salo's mask and bounces across the goal line. And since that day, Sweden have been gacking in international competitions.
I think it stops here. They haven't had a netminder step up, and now they have Henrik Lundqvist, wowing the NHL for the New York Rangers after rocking the Swedish Elite League during the lockout. They've got playmaking up and down the lineup, and while losing Markus Naslund hurts, they've replaced him with Tomas Holmstrom. Holmstrom will be the worst skater of any of the top 8 contenders, but he will be digging for rebounds and screening the opposition goaltender like mad, and that adds something Sweden didn't have that they might need to turn to. They have veterans with international experience (Sundin, Forsberg if he's healthy) and exciting youth (e.g., Zetterberg, the Sedin twins). Their defense is top notch on both ends of the ice, led by steady Nick Lidstrom, still playing 30 minutes a night at age 35 in the NHL. He won't need to here, but he'll be on the ice at all crucial times. Russia will get the attention as the "creative" team but I think Sweden's even better at it.
Of course, one loss and, like Canada, they'll have a nation on their backs, right next to the monkey. If Forsberg is out they'll lose their most dominant forward, but I think they have the depth to handle it. I think they'll be eager to put forth a good showing and come out on top of this group.
So that leaves me with these matchups (& wild-ass guesses) for the medal round:
Sweden vs. Germany--Sweden
Czech Republic vs. USA--Czechs
Russia vs. Finland--Russia
Canada vs. Slovakia--Canada
Sweden over Czechs & Canada over Russia in the semis.
Bronze medal: Czechs over Russia:
Silver: Sweden
Gold: Canada
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
Olympic Hockey Preview, Part Two--Group A
For this and the Group B preview, I've gotten information from this CBC preview; Kevin DuPont and Bill Clement writing about team USA at MSNBC; Scott Burnside's breakdowns at ESPN; and John McGourty's preview at NHL.com
In worst-to-first order:
Italy
You see, the host country not only gets a free pass into every sport, they are required to field a team in them. Hence this cannon fodder. No current NHL's on the squad, the only name I recognized was G Jason Muzzati, and that just goes to show I've watched too much hockey. They do have another goalie named Gunther Hell,
which is awesome. Maybe they get up for a "border war" against Switzerland, but other than that it will probably be a bigger upset that Belarus over Sweden if they win a game.
Switzerland
The Swiss have an improving hockey program based on their international standing--but only two NHLers, and both netminders (Colorado's David Aebischer and Carolina's Martin Gerber). Depth is way way overrated in these short tournaments, so I'm leery of those counting multiple netminders as a strength--though with 5 games in 7 days in the preliminary round, and the quarterfinals making it 6 in 8, there might be something to be said for the stronger teams having multiple goalies to turn to. The
Switzerland-Germany game will probably decide the 4th medal round team out of this group, although a goalie really standing on his head might steal one from a better team.
Germany
Olaf Kolzig! That's what there is to know about Germany. OK, Marco Sturm and Johan Hecht are NHL-caliber forwards who should contribute enough for Germany to hold its own and beat down lesser teams. Kolzig's last few seasons on the Capitals have gotten him used to being peppered by more talented teams, so he may be able to parlay a steady hand into greater things, even a quarterfinal win. If Belarus can do it, I'm sure he could steal one. I can't say that it's likely though. Burnside thinks they may be in trouble if the obstruction crackdown is severe, and spend too much time on the penalty kill to accomplish anything.
The team is coached by Uwe Krupp, whom I hate for basically stealing four years worth of salary from the Red Wings after being signed from Colorado. I think he was an Avalanche plant.
Finland
Finland, Finland, Finland...the country where I quite want to be. The Finns by far have the coolest names in all of hockey. Teppo Numinenn! Antti Laaksonen! Saku Koivu! I would have had the Finns as far underrated in this tournament until recently--their previous weakness at the international level had been goaltending, but lately Finnish goaltenders have made headway in the NHL.
However it looks like likely starters Mikka Kipprusoff and Kari Lehtonen will be sidelined with injuries, and the team will have to turn to Antero Nittymaki (another awesome name!). He's been capable with the Flyers this season, but there may not be the trust there for the team to gel around. Other injuries to Tuomo Ruutu and Sami Kapanen will also hurt the team's frontline and depth.
The Finns have always played a tough, hardworking game that pushes their opponents to the limit. I have them third in this group but they do have a chance to win gold, especially if they stay pesky on offense. Of note, since the medal round will use shootouts if need be, is that forward Jussi Jonkinen is 8-for-8 for Dallas in the shootout this year.
Czech Republic
Another team with an enviable choice in goal, between legend Dominic Hasek (still succeeding in the NHL at age 41) and Tomas Vokoun. Both tremendous on regular play and shootouts and can cover for a team that may be weak defensively. Their D will move the puck well, but doesn't have a physical presence and the forwards won't help with that. Jiri Fischer will be missed here. They do play a cohesive game that looks to create off of turnovers and the transition game, which can be a problem if they fall behind, and other teams don't have to come at them. The Czechs have the advantage of half their team already playing for the New York Rangers, so they might have some lines that start clicking while other teams are still getting over the jet
lag. They also have a good blend of experience dating back to the Nagano games and hungry young players. They're a definite favorite to medal and probably have the best chance of displacing Canada for the gold.
Canada
Well, I tipped my hand there, but I'm not about to buck the field on this one. I wouldn't say they're the overwhelming favorite (i.e. more likely to win gold than not), but definitely the favorite, and it's not really close. They could possibly field two medal-caliber teams, and in making their choices they thought well about how to win a team game, adding players like Kris Draper and Shane Doan who will provide the grit and mucking rather than just taking the 20 best shooters. They should be able to play to any style of game that develops and succeed at it. Goalie Martin Brodeur is still probably the best in the game, has a gold already, and his backup Roberto Luongo would probably start for every other team here except the Czechs.
However, the flip side of this is the crushing expectations. Anything short of a repeat gold will be a disappointment, and even a relatively meaningless pool-play loss will be dissected and lamented back home. The multiple options mean some good players will be left home or on the taxi squad, and a loss will bring out questions as to why so-and-so wasn't playing.
Although many of the respected veterans are retired or not playing (e.g. Lemieux, Yzerman, Kariya), Canada does return 17 from its undefeated 2004 World Cup squad. The younger stars like Jarome Iginla will have to step up a bit. Their defense corps is getting a little banged up and that could force some heavy minutes on the healthier players. But they still should come out of this group as a favorite to win it all.
In worst-to-first order:
Italy
You see, the host country not only gets a free pass into every sport, they are required to field a team in them. Hence this cannon fodder. No current NHL's on the squad, the only name I recognized was G Jason Muzzati, and that just goes to show I've watched too much hockey. They do have another goalie named Gunther Hell,
which is awesome. Maybe they get up for a "border war" against Switzerland, but other than that it will probably be a bigger upset that Belarus over Sweden if they win a game.
Switzerland
The Swiss have an improving hockey program based on their international standing--but only two NHLers, and both netminders (Colorado's David Aebischer and Carolina's Martin Gerber). Depth is way way overrated in these short tournaments, so I'm leery of those counting multiple netminders as a strength--though with 5 games in 7 days in the preliminary round, and the quarterfinals making it 6 in 8, there might be something to be said for the stronger teams having multiple goalies to turn to. The
Switzerland-Germany game will probably decide the 4th medal round team out of this group, although a goalie really standing on his head might steal one from a better team.
Germany
Olaf Kolzig! That's what there is to know about Germany. OK, Marco Sturm and Johan Hecht are NHL-caliber forwards who should contribute enough for Germany to hold its own and beat down lesser teams. Kolzig's last few seasons on the Capitals have gotten him used to being peppered by more talented teams, so he may be able to parlay a steady hand into greater things, even a quarterfinal win. If Belarus can do it, I'm sure he could steal one. I can't say that it's likely though. Burnside thinks they may be in trouble if the obstruction crackdown is severe, and spend too much time on the penalty kill to accomplish anything.
The team is coached by Uwe Krupp, whom I hate for basically stealing four years worth of salary from the Red Wings after being signed from Colorado. I think he was an Avalanche plant.
Finland
Finland, Finland, Finland...the country where I quite want to be. The Finns by far have the coolest names in all of hockey. Teppo Numinenn! Antti Laaksonen! Saku Koivu! I would have had the Finns as far underrated in this tournament until recently--their previous weakness at the international level had been goaltending, but lately Finnish goaltenders have made headway in the NHL.
However it looks like likely starters Mikka Kipprusoff and Kari Lehtonen will be sidelined with injuries, and the team will have to turn to Antero Nittymaki (another awesome name!). He's been capable with the Flyers this season, but there may not be the trust there for the team to gel around. Other injuries to Tuomo Ruutu and Sami Kapanen will also hurt the team's frontline and depth.
The Finns have always played a tough, hardworking game that pushes their opponents to the limit. I have them third in this group but they do have a chance to win gold, especially if they stay pesky on offense. Of note, since the medal round will use shootouts if need be, is that forward Jussi Jonkinen is 8-for-8 for Dallas in the shootout this year.
Czech Republic
Another team with an enviable choice in goal, between legend Dominic Hasek (still succeeding in the NHL at age 41) and Tomas Vokoun. Both tremendous on regular play and shootouts and can cover for a team that may be weak defensively. Their D will move the puck well, but doesn't have a physical presence and the forwards won't help with that. Jiri Fischer will be missed here. They do play a cohesive game that looks to create off of turnovers and the transition game, which can be a problem if they fall behind, and other teams don't have to come at them. The Czechs have the advantage of half their team already playing for the New York Rangers, so they might have some lines that start clicking while other teams are still getting over the jet
lag. They also have a good blend of experience dating back to the Nagano games and hungry young players. They're a definite favorite to medal and probably have the best chance of displacing Canada for the gold.
Canada
Well, I tipped my hand there, but I'm not about to buck the field on this one. I wouldn't say they're the overwhelming favorite (i.e. more likely to win gold than not), but definitely the favorite, and it's not really close. They could possibly field two medal-caliber teams, and in making their choices they thought well about how to win a team game, adding players like Kris Draper and Shane Doan who will provide the grit and mucking rather than just taking the 20 best shooters. They should be able to play to any style of game that develops and succeed at it. Goalie Martin Brodeur is still probably the best in the game, has a gold already, and his backup Roberto Luongo would probably start for every other team here except the Czechs.
However, the flip side of this is the crushing expectations. Anything short of a repeat gold will be a disappointment, and even a relatively meaningless pool-play loss will be dissected and lamented back home. The multiple options mean some good players will be left home or on the taxi squad, and a loss will bring out questions as to why so-and-so wasn't playing.
Although many of the respected veterans are retired or not playing (e.g. Lemieux, Yzerman, Kariya), Canada does return 17 from its undefeated 2004 World Cup squad. The younger stars like Jarome Iginla will have to step up a bit. Their defense corps is getting a little banged up and that could force some heavy minutes on the healthier players. But they still should come out of this group as a favorite to win it all.
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
We Interrupt This Hockey News to Bring You Nationals Follies
Ah, the DC City council rejected the stadium lease in a mix of craven pandering and principled opposition. This effectively renegs on the agreement they signed last year and baseball will now take the city to arbitration, as per agreed upon remedies in the agreement. Almost certainly they will win, and get more money out of the city than that agreement stipulated, all in all. And, of course MLB still won't sell the team...obstensibly so that they can be the bad guys who forced the arbitration, and the new owner starts "clean". I still think a real owner would have gotten something worked out because it was in his best interests to sacrifice anything in the name of good relations.
Don't believe the "they're leaving" hype; they still have nowhere to go, and if anyplace becomes remotely plausible the Marlins have dibs. However, early this season Selig can notify the Player's Association that he intends to contract two teams, and the players cannot contest (per the last labor agreement.) Since Selig does not have to name the teams, I now expect he'll waive this baton to scare DC, South Florida and Minnesota into coughing up corporate welfare in the form of stadia.
UPDATE: Well, staying up later than even I do, the council approved a lease with a spending cap. Baseball probably won't be happy with that but they'll have to live with it, as they claim the construction company is already on the hook for some overruns as currently detailed. See Boswell's column for more info, but keep in mind that as he's been pining for basebal since the expansion Senators left, he plans to hold his breath and turn blue if the Nationals try to pull up stakes.
Don't believe the "they're leaving" hype; they still have nowhere to go, and if anyplace becomes remotely plausible the Marlins have dibs. However, early this season Selig can notify the Player's Association that he intends to contract two teams, and the players cannot contest (per the last labor agreement.) Since Selig does not have to name the teams, I now expect he'll waive this baton to scare DC, South Florida and Minnesota into coughing up corporate welfare in the form of stadia.
UPDATE: Well, staying up later than even I do, the council approved a lease with a spending cap. Baseball probably won't be happy with that but they'll have to live with it, as they claim the construction company is already on the hook for some overruns as currently detailed. See Boswell's column for more info, but keep in mind that as he's been pining for basebal since the expansion Senators left, he plans to hold his breath and turn blue if the Nationals try to pull up stakes.
Olympic Hockey Preview, Part One
I thought I'd cull together information from some sources to go over the 12 teams in the upcoming Men's Olympic Hockey Tournament. I'll certainly watch some of the Women's tournament, but I won't be into it enough to preview it.
The IIHF website has this handy schedule, although it's in local time in Torino; subtract 6 hours for EST. Also, the complete rosters can be found there, as are the world rankings referenced below.
NHL referees will be used, and we're supposed to see the obstruction crackdown continue. If the players relapse and the refs don't then we should see special teams (power play and penalty kill) play a huge role. I supsect the players won't relapse, as fewer "muckers" will make the all-star-like rosters and they will be using the wider (by 13.5 feet) international ice surface. The neutral zone will also be larger at the expense of the offensive zones, more like the pre-lockout NHL. ESPN has the other major rules differences.
The twelve participants are divided into two preliminary round-robin pools; the top four in each group will advance to the medal round for a single-elimination tournament. This is a change from the first two Olympiads with NHL players, where they had two four-team preliminary pools, the winners of each advanced to join another four-team pool consisting of themselves and the six "big" nations (USA, Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Czech Rep.). Since the NHL would not shut down in time for the preliminary pool, the seventh-best team, Slovakia, got hosed--their players could only play the early games if their NHL teams consented to let them go early. Germany, whose hopes have always ridden on Washington Captials goalie Olaf Kolzig, also got screwed over. I'm glad they've finally rectified this. The two groups (World Ranking in parentheses)
Group A:
Canada (1), Czech Republic (3), Finland (7), Switzerland (8), Germany (10), Italy (19)
Group B:
Sweden (2), Slovakia (4), Russia (5), USA (6), Latvia (9), Kazakhstan (15)
Sometime before the tournament starts a week from Wednesday, I'll get previews of each of those two groups up. They'll largely be based on my personal compilation and interpretation of "experts" that I'll be sure to link to & reference, but I'll interject my original thoughts (if I have any) as well.
The IIHF website has this handy schedule, although it's in local time in Torino; subtract 6 hours for EST. Also, the complete rosters can be found there, as are the world rankings referenced below.
NHL referees will be used, and we're supposed to see the obstruction crackdown continue. If the players relapse and the refs don't then we should see special teams (power play and penalty kill) play a huge role. I supsect the players won't relapse, as fewer "muckers" will make the all-star-like rosters and they will be using the wider (by 13.5 feet) international ice surface. The neutral zone will also be larger at the expense of the offensive zones, more like the pre-lockout NHL. ESPN has the other major rules differences.
The twelve participants are divided into two preliminary round-robin pools; the top four in each group will advance to the medal round for a single-elimination tournament. This is a change from the first two Olympiads with NHL players, where they had two four-team preliminary pools, the winners of each advanced to join another four-team pool consisting of themselves and the six "big" nations (USA, Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Czech Rep.). Since the NHL would not shut down in time for the preliminary pool, the seventh-best team, Slovakia, got hosed--their players could only play the early games if their NHL teams consented to let them go early. Germany, whose hopes have always ridden on Washington Captials goalie Olaf Kolzig, also got screwed over. I'm glad they've finally rectified this. The two groups (World Ranking in parentheses)
Group A:
Canada (1), Czech Republic (3), Finland (7), Switzerland (8), Germany (10), Italy (19)
Group B:
Sweden (2), Slovakia (4), Russia (5), USA (6), Latvia (9), Kazakhstan (15)
Sometime before the tournament starts a week from Wednesday, I'll get previews of each of those two groups up. They'll largely be based on my personal compilation and interpretation of "experts" that I'll be sure to link to & reference, but I'll interject my original thoughts (if I have any) as well.
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Jack Bauer vs. Chuck Norris
Random facts about Jack Bauer (favorite: "Jack Bauer has been to Mars. Thats why there's no life on Mars.") and random facts about Chuck Norris (favorite: "Oxygen requires Chuck Norris to live.")
Thursday, January 26, 2006
Renew! Renew!
No, not back to this crap, but just a post about how I've renewed my Nationals tickets. Of course, I could only renew Plan B, but I want Plan A this year. I'm supposed to call in a couple of weeks and see if I can switch that. If not, I suppose the only bad deal is a few more afternoon games that I think I'll be able to skip away to, plus having to buy 3 Cubs tickets instead of two.
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Cringe-worthy Doublespeak
OK, so death row inmate Clarence Allen (I'm refusing to participate in the "murderer gets their middle name listed" convention) wanted to be allowed to expire if he had another heart attack before his execution. This was refused. Now, I can see the prison wanting to preserve opportunities for clemency or making sure that sentences were carried out as intended. But I don't think you can justify it the way Vernell Crittendon did:
Nope, we will respect life right up until we end it. If you want to be in favor of capital punishment, fine--I'm against it, for the record--but let's not pretend the system we have now treats all life as sacred. Perhaps "all life that has not committed horrible transgressions," but this attitude of pretending this is not state-sanctioned killing irritates me. Again, if you're ok with that as it is, fine. But come out and say it.
At no point are we not going to value the sanctity of life.
Nope, we will respect life right up until we end it. If you want to be in favor of capital punishment, fine--I'm against it, for the record--but let's not pretend the system we have now treats all life as sacred. Perhaps "all life that has not committed horrible transgressions," but this attitude of pretending this is not state-sanctioned killing irritates me. Again, if you're ok with that as it is, fine. But come out and say it.
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Hmm...Not Sure How I Feel About This.
On one hand, thanks to my support of the teaching of actual science, I now have a song about my very own name. On the other hand...I have a dorky song about my very own name.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
01 + 05 = 06
Happy New Year! I ain't got nuthin' to say but I'd better get back on schedule. DC Baseball is still a pissing contest, Pat Robertson is still batshit crazy, Alex Ovechkin is still a really good hockey player. Oh yeah, and the state of Virginia is going to allow some DNA testing to see if a man who was sentenced to execution is innocent. Too bad they already carried out that sentence.
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