Olympic Hockey Preview, Part Two--Group A

For this and the Group B preview, I've gotten information from this CBC preview; Kevin DuPont and Bill Clement writing about team USA at MSNBC; Scott Burnside's breakdowns at ESPN; and John McGourty's preview at NHL.com

In worst-to-first order:

Italy
You see, the host country not only gets a free pass into every sport, they are required to field a team in them. Hence this cannon fodder. No current NHL's on the squad, the only name I recognized was G Jason Muzzati, and that just goes to show I've watched too much hockey. They do have another goalie named Gunther Hell,
which is awesome. Maybe they get up for a "border war" against Switzerland, but other than that it will probably be a bigger upset that Belarus over Sweden if they win a game.

Switzerland
The Swiss have an improving hockey program based on their international standing--but only two NHLers, and both netminders (Colorado's David Aebischer and Carolina's Martin Gerber). Depth is way way overrated in these short tournaments, so I'm leery of those counting multiple netminders as a strength--though with 5 games in 7 days in the preliminary round, and the quarterfinals making it 6 in 8, there might be something to be said for the stronger teams having multiple goalies to turn to. The
Switzerland-Germany game will probably decide the 4th medal round team out of this group, although a goalie really standing on his head might steal one from a better team.

Germany
Olaf Kolzig! That's what there is to know about Germany. OK, Marco Sturm and Johan Hecht are NHL-caliber forwards who should contribute enough for Germany to hold its own and beat down lesser teams. Kolzig's last few seasons on the Capitals have gotten him used to being peppered by more talented teams, so he may be able to parlay a steady hand into greater things, even a quarterfinal win. If Belarus can do it, I'm sure he could steal one. I can't say that it's likely though. Burnside thinks they may be in trouble if the obstruction crackdown is severe, and spend too much time on the penalty kill to accomplish anything.

The team is coached by Uwe Krupp, whom I hate for basically stealing four years worth of salary from the Red Wings after being signed from Colorado. I think he was an Avalanche plant.

Finland
Finland, Finland, Finland...the country where I quite want to be. The Finns by far have the coolest names in all of hockey. Teppo Numinenn! Antti Laaksonen! Saku Koivu! I would have had the Finns as far underrated in this tournament until recently--their previous weakness at the international level had been goaltending, but lately Finnish goaltenders have made headway in the NHL.

However it looks like likely starters Mikka Kipprusoff and Kari Lehtonen will be sidelined with injuries, and the team will have to turn to Antero Nittymaki (another awesome name!). He's been capable with the Flyers this season, but there may not be the trust there for the team to gel around. Other injuries to Tuomo Ruutu and Sami Kapanen will also hurt the team's frontline and depth.

The Finns have always played a tough, hardworking game that pushes their opponents to the limit. I have them third in this group but they do have a chance to win gold, especially if they stay pesky on offense. Of note, since the medal round will use shootouts if need be, is that forward Jussi Jonkinen is 8-for-8 for Dallas in the shootout this year.

Czech Republic
Another team with an enviable choice in goal, between legend Dominic Hasek (still succeeding in the NHL at age 41) and Tomas Vokoun. Both tremendous on regular play and shootouts and can cover for a team that may be weak defensively. Their D will move the puck well, but doesn't have a physical presence and the forwards won't help with that. Jiri Fischer will be missed here. They do play a cohesive game that looks to create off of turnovers and the transition game, which can be a problem if they fall behind, and other teams don't have to come at them. The Czechs have the advantage of half their team already playing for the New York Rangers, so they might have some lines that start clicking while other teams are still getting over the jet
lag. They also have a good blend of experience dating back to the Nagano games and hungry young players. They're a definite favorite to medal and probably have the best chance of displacing Canada for the gold.

Canada
Well, I tipped my hand there, but I'm not about to buck the field on this one. I wouldn't say they're the overwhelming favorite (i.e. more likely to win gold than not), but definitely the favorite, and it's not really close. They could possibly field two medal-caliber teams, and in making their choices they thought well about how to win a team game, adding players like Kris Draper and Shane Doan who will provide the grit and mucking rather than just taking the 20 best shooters. They should be able to play to any style of game that develops and succeed at it. Goalie Martin Brodeur is still probably the best in the game, has a gold already, and his backup Roberto Luongo would probably start for every other team here except the Czechs.

However, the flip side of this is the crushing expectations. Anything short of a repeat gold will be a disappointment, and even a relatively meaningless pool-play loss will be dissected and lamented back home. The multiple options mean some good players will be left home or on the taxi squad, and a loss will bring out questions as to why so-and-so wasn't playing.

Although many of the respected veterans are retired or not playing (e.g. Lemieux, Yzerman, Kariya), Canada does return 17 from its undefeated 2004 World Cup squad. The younger stars like Jarome Iginla will have to step up a bit. Their defense corps is getting a little banged up and that could force some heavy minutes on the healthier players. But they still should come out of this group as a favorite to win it all.