Kazakhstan
They have F Nik Antropov of the Maple Leafs and G Vitaliy Kolesnik, who's seen some time with the Avalanche this year. This figures to be a better learning exercise for Colorado than it does anything else. The team upset Germany at the 2005 World Championships, and played some other teams close, so they could surprise with a win over Latvia, a lazy US team, or Slovakia if their goaltending is worse than advertised--but they'll be hard pressed to pull off enough to get to the medal round once and if they catch someone's attention.
Latvia
Latvia is here on the decaying remnants of the Soviet program--they don't have the depth of talent when it doesn't get to train with the best of a huge nation, and they could fall off of the international stage after this. Arturs Irbe should tend net--he led Carolina to the 2002 Stanley Cup Finals. They could steal a win or two--they have some other NHL-caliber players such as "defenseman" Sandis Ozolinsh. (The next day he plays D will be the first.) It will take a collapse by someone else for them to make the medal round, but they do have the ability to take advantage of such a collapse.
Slovakia
The previews I read seem to be very high on Slovakia. As I mentioned before, they're finally getting a fair chance to compete. And they have a power to turn to. Could it be....Satan??
Alright, tired Miorslav Satan joke done. They have a lot of star power up front-Satan, Pavel Demitra, Marian Gaborik, Petr Bondra, and a pair of Hossa brothers. However it's not a very defensive bunch, and while they do have a couple of star defenders (Zdeno Chara and Lubomir Visnovky), the Slovaks are thinner there than any other serious medal contender. You'll notice I haven't mentioned netminders yet--that's their biggest uncertainty. Neither of their goalies are NHL guys, and if it seems like I'm using that as a crutch for analysis, I can only point out that it is the best hockey in the world. When they're open for business. Between that and their thin defensive talent, I don't see them doing as well as some people think. If they are to do well, one of the goalies will have to step up. They will also have conserve the minutes of their top-four defensemen--by staying out of the penalty box, and by putting away teams early (especially the two weak sisters above).
United States
The US team is in transition. The stalwarts of international competition have gotten old and/or retired, and the team has had to get younger--yet, they're still old on defense, led by 44-year-old captain Chris Chelios. He's been a model of solid play and conserving his effort this year for the Red Wings, but can he keep up the effort for 5 games in 8 days on the bigger ice surface? The same is true for much of the rest of the defense, to lesser degrees. Of random note, injury replacement D Bret Hedican will be shooting for the second gold in his family--the other owned by his wife Kristi Yamaguchi.
Their forward core is young-led by Scott Gomez, Eric Cole, and Mark Parrish--but I think it has the scoring potential. They're not speedy but they are quick enough to pay a pressure game and keep the puck in the offensive zone. They could really use the few veterans to step up with some clutch goals--I'm looking at you, Keith Tkachuk.
The US, like Slovakia, is unsettled in net. They've brought Rick DiPietro (NYI), John Grahame (TB), and Robert Esche (PHI). Unfortunately the best US goalie this NHL season has been Ryan Miller (BUF), who was hurt at selection time, so they passed over him. DiPietro should start as he has the capacity to be great--but he hasn't been great much of this season. Grahame and Esche have similarly not played to potential, but instead of great-> OK they've been more decent->blah->downright crappy. Someone has to step up for the US to medal, and DiPietro's the best bet.
Overall this looks like more of a transition year to a team with a strong chance in Vancouver in 2010. The US will have to bust its collective butt if they want to medal. Coach Peter Laviolette might want to play a soundbite from Miracle--"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." They have to win the majority of loose pucks and pounce on the majority of rebounds in both ends. They have to come away from the special teams (i.e. man-advantage) situations with a substantial plus in goals. Any medal would be a good result--but it's not out of the question that if they play up to 90% of their potential they can take the gold. One break they get is starting with Kazakhstan and Latvia, so they potentially get two games to ramp up to top speed. Or they could lose one of them and blow their chances.
Russia
I had difficulty rating these last three teams, and I strongly considered putting the US ahead of Russia. The Russians are talented but dysfunctional. Pavel Bure was appointed GM, and this led a lot of the better Russian players (Fedorov and Zubov among them) to pass on the competition. The fact that the Russian federation is still largely controlled with an old-guard mentality has not done anything for team loyalty, chemistry, or sense of nationalism, and Russian teams since 1998 have been characterized my infighting and lack of cohesion.
That being said, they've medaled in both of the professional Olympics, and still have some of the best talent in the world. They've added some young players and could conceivably ice a line of Alexander Ovechkin (presumptive NHL Rookie of the Year), Pavel Datsyuk (he of the Jedi puck control skills), and Ilya Kovalchuk (no defense sniper extraordinaire.) That line might even make Jack Bauer wet himself. The rest of the forwards (including Alexei Yashin, Alexander Kovalev) should add goals and creative playmaking but little grit. The grit will be made up on defense, where Darius Kasparitis never met a check he didn't like. Sergei Gonchar is also on the blue line, and can add great puck movement if he pulls his head out of his butt, where he's had it all year for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Evgeni Nabokov looks to get the start in goal with Khabibulin hurting, as soon as he finishes his draft of Lolita. He's seemed to struggle a bit this year, but I think that's as much the change in the new rules changing expectations for goalies as anything. That, and San Jose isn't great in front of him. I think he'll be decent and lead the Russians to second in the group, but that USA-Russia matchup on the last day of pool play could be pivotal and a helluva game.
Sweden
Salt Lake City. 2002. An innocent floater fro Vladimir Kopat of Belarus hits Tommy Salo's mask and bounces across the goal line. And since that day, Sweden have been gacking in international competitions.
I think it stops here. They haven't had a netminder step up, and now they have Henrik Lundqvist, wowing the NHL for the New York Rangers after rocking the Swedish Elite League during the lockout. They've got playmaking up and down the lineup, and while losing Markus Naslund hurts, they've replaced him with Tomas Holmstrom. Holmstrom will be the worst skater of any of the top 8 contenders, but he will be digging for rebounds and screening the opposition goaltender like mad, and that adds something Sweden didn't have that they might need to turn to. They have veterans with international experience (Sundin, Forsberg if he's healthy) and exciting youth (e.g., Zetterberg, the Sedin twins). Their defense is top notch on both ends of the ice, led by steady Nick Lidstrom, still playing 30 minutes a night at age 35 in the NHL. He won't need to here, but he'll be on the ice at all crucial times. Russia will get the attention as the "creative" team but I think Sweden's even better at it.
Of course, one loss and, like Canada, they'll have a nation on their backs, right next to the monkey. If Forsberg is out they'll lose their most dominant forward, but I think they have the depth to handle it. I think they'll be eager to put forth a good showing and come out on top of this group.
So that leaves me with these matchups (& wild-ass guesses) for the medal round:
Sweden vs. Germany--Sweden
Czech Republic vs. USA--Czechs
Russia vs. Finland--Russia
Canada vs. Slovakia--Canada
Sweden over Czechs & Canada over Russia in the semis.
Bronze medal: Czechs over Russia:
Silver: Sweden
Gold: Canada
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