Listen to me clearly: Around the World. Around the World.
Hopefully the return to real racing will include an actual circumnavigation, better tasks, and less "baby." Oops.
Monday, February 27, 2006
Thursday, February 23, 2006
Places not to have Pit Stops
With a real Amazing Race premiering in less than a week, I bring you a link to places they probably won't be visiting.
I would invite you to contemplate, as I did, who in their right mind would have even thought about going to any of those places on holiday anyway. Except Papau New Guinea--I hadn't heard the situation there before this article.
I would invite you to contemplate, as I did, who in their right mind would have even thought about going to any of those places on holiday anyway. Except Papau New Guinea--I hadn't heard the situation there before this article.
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Olympic Hockey Medal Round
The pairing are set and only bear the slightest resemblance to my preview. I got seven of eight medal round teams right, but a reasonably intelligent chimpanzee could have done that.
Anyway, here is the bracket:
Winner of Finland vs. U.S.A. plays winner of Russia vs. Canada in one semifinal
Winner of Slovakia vs. Czeck Republic plays winner of Switzerland vs. Sweden
Brief Preview and picks:
Sw game
The Swiss scored two surprising upsets over the Czechs and Candians; then proceded to tie two lesser teams. It didn't cost them 2nd place in the group, but still--they were outscored in the preliminary round, and that speaks to a team that isn't as good as its wins look. The Swedes are a better team, and don't want to have a third straight Olympic quarterfinal ouster...I think they'll take it 3-2.
Czechoslovakia game
The formerly united countries face off...the Czech team underperforming and hurt; Slovakia is undefeated and on a roll. I do think the Slovak defense will come back to haunt them, but I think the roll will continue here; Slovaks 4-2.
Summit Series '72 Game
Canada and Russia, minus the whole animosity thing. Did Canada get back on track in defeating the Czechs? The Russians are playing well, only losing to Slovakia while showing the best offensive output of pool play. Canada will probably try to keep this game low scoring and physical--but the Russians are clicking, and Canada will have to find its scoring touch in a hurry. Toughest game for me to call; I'll take Russia in a 5-4 final. This is the most likely game to need a shootout, and if it goes to one I have no idea what will happen.
Game with no catchy reference
Finland allowed two goals in five games. The U.S. has been struggling to score. Gee, what do we think will happen here? The U.S. has improved every game--their effort is closer to where it needs to be, but they still are having difficulty finding the back of the net. Or sometimes, given all the times I've heard "shot wide," finding the net at all. They're also making too many mistakes in giveaways and not covering odd man chances. I don't think they'll find the offense against the currently dominating Finns. Three of the U.S. goals today were against the Russian backup. I say Finland 4, U.S. 1.
Beyond that, I'll run with Finland over Russia; Sweden over the Slovaks; with Finland gold, Sweden silver, and Russia bronze. Note how quickly I abandon my Canada/Sweden/Czech Republic prediction, which is still possible.
Anyway, here is the bracket:
Winner of Finland vs. U.S.A. plays winner of Russia vs. Canada in one semifinal
Winner of Slovakia vs. Czeck Republic plays winner of Switzerland vs. Sweden
Brief Preview and picks:
Sw game
The Swiss scored two surprising upsets over the Czechs and Candians; then proceded to tie two lesser teams. It didn't cost them 2nd place in the group, but still--they were outscored in the preliminary round, and that speaks to a team that isn't as good as its wins look. The Swedes are a better team, and don't want to have a third straight Olympic quarterfinal ouster...I think they'll take it 3-2.
Czechoslovakia game
The formerly united countries face off...the Czech team underperforming and hurt; Slovakia is undefeated and on a roll. I do think the Slovak defense will come back to haunt them, but I think the roll will continue here; Slovaks 4-2.
Summit Series '72 Game
Canada and Russia, minus the whole animosity thing. Did Canada get back on track in defeating the Czechs? The Russians are playing well, only losing to Slovakia while showing the best offensive output of pool play. Canada will probably try to keep this game low scoring and physical--but the Russians are clicking, and Canada will have to find its scoring touch in a hurry. Toughest game for me to call; I'll take Russia in a 5-4 final. This is the most likely game to need a shootout, and if it goes to one I have no idea what will happen.
Game with no catchy reference
Finland allowed two goals in five games. The U.S. has been struggling to score. Gee, what do we think will happen here? The U.S. has improved every game--their effort is closer to where it needs to be, but they still are having difficulty finding the back of the net. Or sometimes, given all the times I've heard "shot wide," finding the net at all. They're also making too many mistakes in giveaways and not covering odd man chances. I don't think they'll find the offense against the currently dominating Finns. Three of the U.S. goals today were against the Russian backup. I say Finland 4, U.S. 1.
Beyond that, I'll run with Finland over Russia; Sweden over the Slovaks; with Finland gold, Sweden silver, and Russia bronze. Note how quickly I abandon my Canada/Sweden/Czech Republic prediction, which is still possible.
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Renewing the Call
Time for me to renew my call to modify the federal holidays. Yes, Washington was very important to this country and we should be cognizant of our history. But we just had a Monday off in January (MLK) after the holiday season; we don't need another day off of work now, in a cold, crappy month, with no holidays coming until the end of May.
When we need it is the first Monday of April. Opening Day. National Pastime, National Holiday--it's got to happen. Tons of people skip work to go to the games anyway, and tons more like me are just this side of useless that day. How does this not make sense? Who's with me?
When we need it is the first Monday of April. Opening Day. National Pastime, National Holiday--it's got to happen. Tons of people skip work to go to the games anyway, and tons more like me are just this side of useless that day. How does this not make sense? Who's with me?
Sunday, February 12, 2006
Olympic Hockey Preview, Part Three--Group B and Medal Round
Same source cites as Group A preview; I'll make quickie bracket positions based on my predicted order of group finish, which of course will be wrong in several key ways.
Kazakhstan
They have F Nik Antropov of the Maple Leafs and G Vitaliy Kolesnik, who's seen some time with the Avalanche this year. This figures to be a better learning exercise for Colorado than it does anything else. The team upset Germany at the 2005 World Championships, and played some other teams close, so they could surprise with a win over Latvia, a lazy US team, or Slovakia if their goaltending is worse than advertised--but they'll be hard pressed to pull off enough to get to the medal round once and if they catch someone's attention.
Latvia
Latvia is here on the decaying remnants of the Soviet program--they don't have the depth of talent when it doesn't get to train with the best of a huge nation, and they could fall off of the international stage after this. Arturs Irbe should tend net--he led Carolina to the 2002 Stanley Cup Finals. They could steal a win or two--they have some other NHL-caliber players such as "defenseman" Sandis Ozolinsh. (The next day he plays D will be the first.) It will take a collapse by someone else for them to make the medal round, but they do have the ability to take advantage of such a collapse.
Slovakia
The previews I read seem to be very high on Slovakia. As I mentioned before, they're finally getting a fair chance to compete. And they have a power to turn to. Could it be....Satan??
Alright, tired Miorslav Satan joke done. They have a lot of star power up front-Satan, Pavel Demitra, Marian Gaborik, Petr Bondra, and a pair of Hossa brothers. However it's not a very defensive bunch, and while they do have a couple of star defenders (Zdeno Chara and Lubomir Visnovky), the Slovaks are thinner there than any other serious medal contender. You'll notice I haven't mentioned netminders yet--that's their biggest uncertainty. Neither of their goalies are NHL guys, and if it seems like I'm using that as a crutch for analysis, I can only point out that it is the best hockey in the world. When they're open for business. Between that and their thin defensive talent, I don't see them doing as well as some people think. If they are to do well, one of the goalies will have to step up. They will also have conserve the minutes of their top-four defensemen--by staying out of the penalty box, and by putting away teams early (especially the two weak sisters above).
United States
The US team is in transition. The stalwarts of international competition have gotten old and/or retired, and the team has had to get younger--yet, they're still old on defense, led by 44-year-old captain Chris Chelios. He's been a model of solid play and conserving his effort this year for the Red Wings, but can he keep up the effort for 5 games in 8 days on the bigger ice surface? The same is true for much of the rest of the defense, to lesser degrees. Of random note, injury replacement D Bret Hedican will be shooting for the second gold in his family--the other owned by his wife Kristi Yamaguchi.
Their forward core is young-led by Scott Gomez, Eric Cole, and Mark Parrish--but I think it has the scoring potential. They're not speedy but they are quick enough to pay a pressure game and keep the puck in the offensive zone. They could really use the few veterans to step up with some clutch goals--I'm looking at you, Keith Tkachuk.
The US, like Slovakia, is unsettled in net. They've brought Rick DiPietro (NYI), John Grahame (TB), and Robert Esche (PHI). Unfortunately the best US goalie this NHL season has been Ryan Miller (BUF), who was hurt at selection time, so they passed over him. DiPietro should start as he has the capacity to be great--but he hasn't been great much of this season. Grahame and Esche have similarly not played to potential, but instead of great-> OK they've been more decent->blah->downright crappy. Someone has to step up for the US to medal, and DiPietro's the best bet.
Overall this looks like more of a transition year to a team with a strong chance in Vancouver in 2010. The US will have to bust its collective butt if they want to medal. Coach Peter Laviolette might want to play a soundbite from Miracle--"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." They have to win the majority of loose pucks and pounce on the majority of rebounds in both ends. They have to come away from the special teams (i.e. man-advantage) situations with a substantial plus in goals. Any medal would be a good result--but it's not out of the question that if they play up to 90% of their potential they can take the gold. One break they get is starting with Kazakhstan and Latvia, so they potentially get two games to ramp up to top speed. Or they could lose one of them and blow their chances.
Russia
I had difficulty rating these last three teams, and I strongly considered putting the US ahead of Russia. The Russians are talented but dysfunctional. Pavel Bure was appointed GM, and this led a lot of the better Russian players (Fedorov and Zubov among them) to pass on the competition. The fact that the Russian federation is still largely controlled with an old-guard mentality has not done anything for team loyalty, chemistry, or sense of nationalism, and Russian teams since 1998 have been characterized my infighting and lack of cohesion.
That being said, they've medaled in both of the professional Olympics, and still have some of the best talent in the world. They've added some young players and could conceivably ice a line of Alexander Ovechkin (presumptive NHL Rookie of the Year), Pavel Datsyuk (he of the Jedi puck control skills), and Ilya Kovalchuk (no defense sniper extraordinaire.) That line might even make Jack Bauer wet himself. The rest of the forwards (including Alexei Yashin, Alexander Kovalev) should add goals and creative playmaking but little grit. The grit will be made up on defense, where Darius Kasparitis never met a check he didn't like. Sergei Gonchar is also on the blue line, and can add great puck movement if he pulls his head out of his butt, where he's had it all year for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Evgeni Nabokov looks to get the start in goal with Khabibulin hurting, as soon as he finishes his draft of Lolita. He's seemed to struggle a bit this year, but I think that's as much the change in the new rules changing expectations for goalies as anything. That, and San Jose isn't great in front of him. I think he'll be decent and lead the Russians to second in the group, but that USA-Russia matchup on the last day of pool play could be pivotal and a helluva game.
Sweden
Salt Lake City. 2002. An innocent floater fro Vladimir Kopat of Belarus hits Tommy Salo's mask and bounces across the goal line. And since that day, Sweden have been gacking in international competitions.
I think it stops here. They haven't had a netminder step up, and now they have Henrik Lundqvist, wowing the NHL for the New York Rangers after rocking the Swedish Elite League during the lockout. They've got playmaking up and down the lineup, and while losing Markus Naslund hurts, they've replaced him with Tomas Holmstrom. Holmstrom will be the worst skater of any of the top 8 contenders, but he will be digging for rebounds and screening the opposition goaltender like mad, and that adds something Sweden didn't have that they might need to turn to. They have veterans with international experience (Sundin, Forsberg if he's healthy) and exciting youth (e.g., Zetterberg, the Sedin twins). Their defense is top notch on both ends of the ice, led by steady Nick Lidstrom, still playing 30 minutes a night at age 35 in the NHL. He won't need to here, but he'll be on the ice at all crucial times. Russia will get the attention as the "creative" team but I think Sweden's even better at it.
Of course, one loss and, like Canada, they'll have a nation on their backs, right next to the monkey. If Forsberg is out they'll lose their most dominant forward, but I think they have the depth to handle it. I think they'll be eager to put forth a good showing and come out on top of this group.
So that leaves me with these matchups (& wild-ass guesses) for the medal round:
Sweden vs. Germany--Sweden
Czech Republic vs. USA--Czechs
Russia vs. Finland--Russia
Canada vs. Slovakia--Canada
Sweden over Czechs & Canada over Russia in the semis.
Bronze medal: Czechs over Russia:
Silver: Sweden
Gold: Canada
Kazakhstan
They have F Nik Antropov of the Maple Leafs and G Vitaliy Kolesnik, who's seen some time with the Avalanche this year. This figures to be a better learning exercise for Colorado than it does anything else. The team upset Germany at the 2005 World Championships, and played some other teams close, so they could surprise with a win over Latvia, a lazy US team, or Slovakia if their goaltending is worse than advertised--but they'll be hard pressed to pull off enough to get to the medal round once and if they catch someone's attention.
Latvia
Latvia is here on the decaying remnants of the Soviet program--they don't have the depth of talent when it doesn't get to train with the best of a huge nation, and they could fall off of the international stage after this. Arturs Irbe should tend net--he led Carolina to the 2002 Stanley Cup Finals. They could steal a win or two--they have some other NHL-caliber players such as "defenseman" Sandis Ozolinsh. (The next day he plays D will be the first.) It will take a collapse by someone else for them to make the medal round, but they do have the ability to take advantage of such a collapse.
Slovakia
The previews I read seem to be very high on Slovakia. As I mentioned before, they're finally getting a fair chance to compete. And they have a power to turn to. Could it be....Satan??
Alright, tired Miorslav Satan joke done. They have a lot of star power up front-Satan, Pavel Demitra, Marian Gaborik, Petr Bondra, and a pair of Hossa brothers. However it's not a very defensive bunch, and while they do have a couple of star defenders (Zdeno Chara and Lubomir Visnovky), the Slovaks are thinner there than any other serious medal contender. You'll notice I haven't mentioned netminders yet--that's their biggest uncertainty. Neither of their goalies are NHL guys, and if it seems like I'm using that as a crutch for analysis, I can only point out that it is the best hockey in the world. When they're open for business. Between that and their thin defensive talent, I don't see them doing as well as some people think. If they are to do well, one of the goalies will have to step up. They will also have conserve the minutes of their top-four defensemen--by staying out of the penalty box, and by putting away teams early (especially the two weak sisters above).
United States
The US team is in transition. The stalwarts of international competition have gotten old and/or retired, and the team has had to get younger--yet, they're still old on defense, led by 44-year-old captain Chris Chelios. He's been a model of solid play and conserving his effort this year for the Red Wings, but can he keep up the effort for 5 games in 8 days on the bigger ice surface? The same is true for much of the rest of the defense, to lesser degrees. Of random note, injury replacement D Bret Hedican will be shooting for the second gold in his family--the other owned by his wife Kristi Yamaguchi.
Their forward core is young-led by Scott Gomez, Eric Cole, and Mark Parrish--but I think it has the scoring potential. They're not speedy but they are quick enough to pay a pressure game and keep the puck in the offensive zone. They could really use the few veterans to step up with some clutch goals--I'm looking at you, Keith Tkachuk.
The US, like Slovakia, is unsettled in net. They've brought Rick DiPietro (NYI), John Grahame (TB), and Robert Esche (PHI). Unfortunately the best US goalie this NHL season has been Ryan Miller (BUF), who was hurt at selection time, so they passed over him. DiPietro should start as he has the capacity to be great--but he hasn't been great much of this season. Grahame and Esche have similarly not played to potential, but instead of great-> OK they've been more decent->blah->downright crappy. Someone has to step up for the US to medal, and DiPietro's the best bet.
Overall this looks like more of a transition year to a team with a strong chance in Vancouver in 2010. The US will have to bust its collective butt if they want to medal. Coach Peter Laviolette might want to play a soundbite from Miracle--"You don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." They have to win the majority of loose pucks and pounce on the majority of rebounds in both ends. They have to come away from the special teams (i.e. man-advantage) situations with a substantial plus in goals. Any medal would be a good result--but it's not out of the question that if they play up to 90% of their potential they can take the gold. One break they get is starting with Kazakhstan and Latvia, so they potentially get two games to ramp up to top speed. Or they could lose one of them and blow their chances.
Russia
I had difficulty rating these last three teams, and I strongly considered putting the US ahead of Russia. The Russians are talented but dysfunctional. Pavel Bure was appointed GM, and this led a lot of the better Russian players (Fedorov and Zubov among them) to pass on the competition. The fact that the Russian federation is still largely controlled with an old-guard mentality has not done anything for team loyalty, chemistry, or sense of nationalism, and Russian teams since 1998 have been characterized my infighting and lack of cohesion.
That being said, they've medaled in both of the professional Olympics, and still have some of the best talent in the world. They've added some young players and could conceivably ice a line of Alexander Ovechkin (presumptive NHL Rookie of the Year), Pavel Datsyuk (he of the Jedi puck control skills), and Ilya Kovalchuk (no defense sniper extraordinaire.) That line might even make Jack Bauer wet himself. The rest of the forwards (including Alexei Yashin, Alexander Kovalev) should add goals and creative playmaking but little grit. The grit will be made up on defense, where Darius Kasparitis never met a check he didn't like. Sergei Gonchar is also on the blue line, and can add great puck movement if he pulls his head out of his butt, where he's had it all year for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Evgeni Nabokov looks to get the start in goal with Khabibulin hurting, as soon as he finishes his draft of Lolita. He's seemed to struggle a bit this year, but I think that's as much the change in the new rules changing expectations for goalies as anything. That, and San Jose isn't great in front of him. I think he'll be decent and lead the Russians to second in the group, but that USA-Russia matchup on the last day of pool play could be pivotal and a helluva game.
Sweden
Salt Lake City. 2002. An innocent floater fro Vladimir Kopat of Belarus hits Tommy Salo's mask and bounces across the goal line. And since that day, Sweden have been gacking in international competitions.
I think it stops here. They haven't had a netminder step up, and now they have Henrik Lundqvist, wowing the NHL for the New York Rangers after rocking the Swedish Elite League during the lockout. They've got playmaking up and down the lineup, and while losing Markus Naslund hurts, they've replaced him with Tomas Holmstrom. Holmstrom will be the worst skater of any of the top 8 contenders, but he will be digging for rebounds and screening the opposition goaltender like mad, and that adds something Sweden didn't have that they might need to turn to. They have veterans with international experience (Sundin, Forsberg if he's healthy) and exciting youth (e.g., Zetterberg, the Sedin twins). Their defense is top notch on both ends of the ice, led by steady Nick Lidstrom, still playing 30 minutes a night at age 35 in the NHL. He won't need to here, but he'll be on the ice at all crucial times. Russia will get the attention as the "creative" team but I think Sweden's even better at it.
Of course, one loss and, like Canada, they'll have a nation on their backs, right next to the monkey. If Forsberg is out they'll lose their most dominant forward, but I think they have the depth to handle it. I think they'll be eager to put forth a good showing and come out on top of this group.
So that leaves me with these matchups (& wild-ass guesses) for the medal round:
Sweden vs. Germany--Sweden
Czech Republic vs. USA--Czechs
Russia vs. Finland--Russia
Canada vs. Slovakia--Canada
Sweden over Czechs & Canada over Russia in the semis.
Bronze medal: Czechs over Russia:
Silver: Sweden
Gold: Canada
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
Olympic Hockey Preview, Part Two--Group A
For this and the Group B preview, I've gotten information from this CBC preview; Kevin DuPont and Bill Clement writing about team USA at MSNBC; Scott Burnside's breakdowns at ESPN; and John McGourty's preview at NHL.com
In worst-to-first order:
Italy
You see, the host country not only gets a free pass into every sport, they are required to field a team in them. Hence this cannon fodder. No current NHL's on the squad, the only name I recognized was G Jason Muzzati, and that just goes to show I've watched too much hockey. They do have another goalie named Gunther Hell,
which is awesome. Maybe they get up for a "border war" against Switzerland, but other than that it will probably be a bigger upset that Belarus over Sweden if they win a game.
Switzerland
The Swiss have an improving hockey program based on their international standing--but only two NHLers, and both netminders (Colorado's David Aebischer and Carolina's Martin Gerber). Depth is way way overrated in these short tournaments, so I'm leery of those counting multiple netminders as a strength--though with 5 games in 7 days in the preliminary round, and the quarterfinals making it 6 in 8, there might be something to be said for the stronger teams having multiple goalies to turn to. The
Switzerland-Germany game will probably decide the 4th medal round team out of this group, although a goalie really standing on his head might steal one from a better team.
Germany
Olaf Kolzig! That's what there is to know about Germany. OK, Marco Sturm and Johan Hecht are NHL-caliber forwards who should contribute enough for Germany to hold its own and beat down lesser teams. Kolzig's last few seasons on the Capitals have gotten him used to being peppered by more talented teams, so he may be able to parlay a steady hand into greater things, even a quarterfinal win. If Belarus can do it, I'm sure he could steal one. I can't say that it's likely though. Burnside thinks they may be in trouble if the obstruction crackdown is severe, and spend too much time on the penalty kill to accomplish anything.
The team is coached by Uwe Krupp, whom I hate for basically stealing four years worth of salary from the Red Wings after being signed from Colorado. I think he was an Avalanche plant.
Finland
Finland, Finland, Finland...the country where I quite want to be. The Finns by far have the coolest names in all of hockey. Teppo Numinenn! Antti Laaksonen! Saku Koivu! I would have had the Finns as far underrated in this tournament until recently--their previous weakness at the international level had been goaltending, but lately Finnish goaltenders have made headway in the NHL.
However it looks like likely starters Mikka Kipprusoff and Kari Lehtonen will be sidelined with injuries, and the team will have to turn to Antero Nittymaki (another awesome name!). He's been capable with the Flyers this season, but there may not be the trust there for the team to gel around. Other injuries to Tuomo Ruutu and Sami Kapanen will also hurt the team's frontline and depth.
The Finns have always played a tough, hardworking game that pushes their opponents to the limit. I have them third in this group but they do have a chance to win gold, especially if they stay pesky on offense. Of note, since the medal round will use shootouts if need be, is that forward Jussi Jonkinen is 8-for-8 for Dallas in the shootout this year.
Czech Republic
Another team with an enviable choice in goal, between legend Dominic Hasek (still succeeding in the NHL at age 41) and Tomas Vokoun. Both tremendous on regular play and shootouts and can cover for a team that may be weak defensively. Their D will move the puck well, but doesn't have a physical presence and the forwards won't help with that. Jiri Fischer will be missed here. They do play a cohesive game that looks to create off of turnovers and the transition game, which can be a problem if they fall behind, and other teams don't have to come at them. The Czechs have the advantage of half their team already playing for the New York Rangers, so they might have some lines that start clicking while other teams are still getting over the jet
lag. They also have a good blend of experience dating back to the Nagano games and hungry young players. They're a definite favorite to medal and probably have the best chance of displacing Canada for the gold.
Canada
Well, I tipped my hand there, but I'm not about to buck the field on this one. I wouldn't say they're the overwhelming favorite (i.e. more likely to win gold than not), but definitely the favorite, and it's not really close. They could possibly field two medal-caliber teams, and in making their choices they thought well about how to win a team game, adding players like Kris Draper and Shane Doan who will provide the grit and mucking rather than just taking the 20 best shooters. They should be able to play to any style of game that develops and succeed at it. Goalie Martin Brodeur is still probably the best in the game, has a gold already, and his backup Roberto Luongo would probably start for every other team here except the Czechs.
However, the flip side of this is the crushing expectations. Anything short of a repeat gold will be a disappointment, and even a relatively meaningless pool-play loss will be dissected and lamented back home. The multiple options mean some good players will be left home or on the taxi squad, and a loss will bring out questions as to why so-and-so wasn't playing.
Although many of the respected veterans are retired or not playing (e.g. Lemieux, Yzerman, Kariya), Canada does return 17 from its undefeated 2004 World Cup squad. The younger stars like Jarome Iginla will have to step up a bit. Their defense corps is getting a little banged up and that could force some heavy minutes on the healthier players. But they still should come out of this group as a favorite to win it all.
In worst-to-first order:
Italy
You see, the host country not only gets a free pass into every sport, they are required to field a team in them. Hence this cannon fodder. No current NHL's on the squad, the only name I recognized was G Jason Muzzati, and that just goes to show I've watched too much hockey. They do have another goalie named Gunther Hell,
which is awesome. Maybe they get up for a "border war" against Switzerland, but other than that it will probably be a bigger upset that Belarus over Sweden if they win a game.
Switzerland
The Swiss have an improving hockey program based on their international standing--but only two NHLers, and both netminders (Colorado's David Aebischer and Carolina's Martin Gerber). Depth is way way overrated in these short tournaments, so I'm leery of those counting multiple netminders as a strength--though with 5 games in 7 days in the preliminary round, and the quarterfinals making it 6 in 8, there might be something to be said for the stronger teams having multiple goalies to turn to. The
Switzerland-Germany game will probably decide the 4th medal round team out of this group, although a goalie really standing on his head might steal one from a better team.
Germany
Olaf Kolzig! That's what there is to know about Germany. OK, Marco Sturm and Johan Hecht are NHL-caliber forwards who should contribute enough for Germany to hold its own and beat down lesser teams. Kolzig's last few seasons on the Capitals have gotten him used to being peppered by more talented teams, so he may be able to parlay a steady hand into greater things, even a quarterfinal win. If Belarus can do it, I'm sure he could steal one. I can't say that it's likely though. Burnside thinks they may be in trouble if the obstruction crackdown is severe, and spend too much time on the penalty kill to accomplish anything.
The team is coached by Uwe Krupp, whom I hate for basically stealing four years worth of salary from the Red Wings after being signed from Colorado. I think he was an Avalanche plant.
Finland
Finland, Finland, Finland...the country where I quite want to be. The Finns by far have the coolest names in all of hockey. Teppo Numinenn! Antti Laaksonen! Saku Koivu! I would have had the Finns as far underrated in this tournament until recently--their previous weakness at the international level had been goaltending, but lately Finnish goaltenders have made headway in the NHL.
However it looks like likely starters Mikka Kipprusoff and Kari Lehtonen will be sidelined with injuries, and the team will have to turn to Antero Nittymaki (another awesome name!). He's been capable with the Flyers this season, but there may not be the trust there for the team to gel around. Other injuries to Tuomo Ruutu and Sami Kapanen will also hurt the team's frontline and depth.
The Finns have always played a tough, hardworking game that pushes their opponents to the limit. I have them third in this group but they do have a chance to win gold, especially if they stay pesky on offense. Of note, since the medal round will use shootouts if need be, is that forward Jussi Jonkinen is 8-for-8 for Dallas in the shootout this year.
Czech Republic
Another team with an enviable choice in goal, between legend Dominic Hasek (still succeeding in the NHL at age 41) and Tomas Vokoun. Both tremendous on regular play and shootouts and can cover for a team that may be weak defensively. Their D will move the puck well, but doesn't have a physical presence and the forwards won't help with that. Jiri Fischer will be missed here. They do play a cohesive game that looks to create off of turnovers and the transition game, which can be a problem if they fall behind, and other teams don't have to come at them. The Czechs have the advantage of half their team already playing for the New York Rangers, so they might have some lines that start clicking while other teams are still getting over the jet
lag. They also have a good blend of experience dating back to the Nagano games and hungry young players. They're a definite favorite to medal and probably have the best chance of displacing Canada for the gold.
Canada
Well, I tipped my hand there, but I'm not about to buck the field on this one. I wouldn't say they're the overwhelming favorite (i.e. more likely to win gold than not), but definitely the favorite, and it's not really close. They could possibly field two medal-caliber teams, and in making their choices they thought well about how to win a team game, adding players like Kris Draper and Shane Doan who will provide the grit and mucking rather than just taking the 20 best shooters. They should be able to play to any style of game that develops and succeed at it. Goalie Martin Brodeur is still probably the best in the game, has a gold already, and his backup Roberto Luongo would probably start for every other team here except the Czechs.
However, the flip side of this is the crushing expectations. Anything short of a repeat gold will be a disappointment, and even a relatively meaningless pool-play loss will be dissected and lamented back home. The multiple options mean some good players will be left home or on the taxi squad, and a loss will bring out questions as to why so-and-so wasn't playing.
Although many of the respected veterans are retired or not playing (e.g. Lemieux, Yzerman, Kariya), Canada does return 17 from its undefeated 2004 World Cup squad. The younger stars like Jarome Iginla will have to step up a bit. Their defense corps is getting a little banged up and that could force some heavy minutes on the healthier players. But they still should come out of this group as a favorite to win it all.
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
We Interrupt This Hockey News to Bring You Nationals Follies
Ah, the DC City council rejected the stadium lease in a mix of craven pandering and principled opposition. This effectively renegs on the agreement they signed last year and baseball will now take the city to arbitration, as per agreed upon remedies in the agreement. Almost certainly they will win, and get more money out of the city than that agreement stipulated, all in all. And, of course MLB still won't sell the team...obstensibly so that they can be the bad guys who forced the arbitration, and the new owner starts "clean". I still think a real owner would have gotten something worked out because it was in his best interests to sacrifice anything in the name of good relations.
Don't believe the "they're leaving" hype; they still have nowhere to go, and if anyplace becomes remotely plausible the Marlins have dibs. However, early this season Selig can notify the Player's Association that he intends to contract two teams, and the players cannot contest (per the last labor agreement.) Since Selig does not have to name the teams, I now expect he'll waive this baton to scare DC, South Florida and Minnesota into coughing up corporate welfare in the form of stadia.
UPDATE: Well, staying up later than even I do, the council approved a lease with a spending cap. Baseball probably won't be happy with that but they'll have to live with it, as they claim the construction company is already on the hook for some overruns as currently detailed. See Boswell's column for more info, but keep in mind that as he's been pining for basebal since the expansion Senators left, he plans to hold his breath and turn blue if the Nationals try to pull up stakes.
Don't believe the "they're leaving" hype; they still have nowhere to go, and if anyplace becomes remotely plausible the Marlins have dibs. However, early this season Selig can notify the Player's Association that he intends to contract two teams, and the players cannot contest (per the last labor agreement.) Since Selig does not have to name the teams, I now expect he'll waive this baton to scare DC, South Florida and Minnesota into coughing up corporate welfare in the form of stadia.
UPDATE: Well, staying up later than even I do, the council approved a lease with a spending cap. Baseball probably won't be happy with that but they'll have to live with it, as they claim the construction company is already on the hook for some overruns as currently detailed. See Boswell's column for more info, but keep in mind that as he's been pining for basebal since the expansion Senators left, he plans to hold his breath and turn blue if the Nationals try to pull up stakes.
Olympic Hockey Preview, Part One
I thought I'd cull together information from some sources to go over the 12 teams in the upcoming Men's Olympic Hockey Tournament. I'll certainly watch some of the Women's tournament, but I won't be into it enough to preview it.
The IIHF website has this handy schedule, although it's in local time in Torino; subtract 6 hours for EST. Also, the complete rosters can be found there, as are the world rankings referenced below.
NHL referees will be used, and we're supposed to see the obstruction crackdown continue. If the players relapse and the refs don't then we should see special teams (power play and penalty kill) play a huge role. I supsect the players won't relapse, as fewer "muckers" will make the all-star-like rosters and they will be using the wider (by 13.5 feet) international ice surface. The neutral zone will also be larger at the expense of the offensive zones, more like the pre-lockout NHL. ESPN has the other major rules differences.
The twelve participants are divided into two preliminary round-robin pools; the top four in each group will advance to the medal round for a single-elimination tournament. This is a change from the first two Olympiads with NHL players, where they had two four-team preliminary pools, the winners of each advanced to join another four-team pool consisting of themselves and the six "big" nations (USA, Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Czech Rep.). Since the NHL would not shut down in time for the preliminary pool, the seventh-best team, Slovakia, got hosed--their players could only play the early games if their NHL teams consented to let them go early. Germany, whose hopes have always ridden on Washington Captials goalie Olaf Kolzig, also got screwed over. I'm glad they've finally rectified this. The two groups (World Ranking in parentheses)
Group A:
Canada (1), Czech Republic (3), Finland (7), Switzerland (8), Germany (10), Italy (19)
Group B:
Sweden (2), Slovakia (4), Russia (5), USA (6), Latvia (9), Kazakhstan (15)
Sometime before the tournament starts a week from Wednesday, I'll get previews of each of those two groups up. They'll largely be based on my personal compilation and interpretation of "experts" that I'll be sure to link to & reference, but I'll interject my original thoughts (if I have any) as well.
The IIHF website has this handy schedule, although it's in local time in Torino; subtract 6 hours for EST. Also, the complete rosters can be found there, as are the world rankings referenced below.
NHL referees will be used, and we're supposed to see the obstruction crackdown continue. If the players relapse and the refs don't then we should see special teams (power play and penalty kill) play a huge role. I supsect the players won't relapse, as fewer "muckers" will make the all-star-like rosters and they will be using the wider (by 13.5 feet) international ice surface. The neutral zone will also be larger at the expense of the offensive zones, more like the pre-lockout NHL. ESPN has the other major rules differences.
The twelve participants are divided into two preliminary round-robin pools; the top four in each group will advance to the medal round for a single-elimination tournament. This is a change from the first two Olympiads with NHL players, where they had two four-team preliminary pools, the winners of each advanced to join another four-team pool consisting of themselves and the six "big" nations (USA, Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Czech Rep.). Since the NHL would not shut down in time for the preliminary pool, the seventh-best team, Slovakia, got hosed--their players could only play the early games if their NHL teams consented to let them go early. Germany, whose hopes have always ridden on Washington Captials goalie Olaf Kolzig, also got screwed over. I'm glad they've finally rectified this. The two groups (World Ranking in parentheses)
Group A:
Canada (1), Czech Republic (3), Finland (7), Switzerland (8), Germany (10), Italy (19)
Group B:
Sweden (2), Slovakia (4), Russia (5), USA (6), Latvia (9), Kazakhstan (15)
Sometime before the tournament starts a week from Wednesday, I'll get previews of each of those two groups up. They'll largely be based on my personal compilation and interpretation of "experts" that I'll be sure to link to & reference, but I'll interject my original thoughts (if I have any) as well.
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Jack Bauer vs. Chuck Norris
Random facts about Jack Bauer (favorite: "Jack Bauer has been to Mars. Thats why there's no life on Mars.") and random facts about Chuck Norris (favorite: "Oxygen requires Chuck Norris to live.")
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